1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1527

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 22:33:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 202233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202233=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-210000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1527
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the lower Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202233Z - 210000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing on a front/confluence zone may pose a
    risk for damaging wind gusts as they drift east/southeast this
    evening. The severe risk is unclear but a weather watch is possible

    DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, isolated storms were developing within
    a pre-frontal confluence zone across southwestern IN and far
    southern IL. Driven mostly by strong daytime heating and weak low
    level convergence near the advancing cold front, additional
    development within the warm moist and mostly uncapped airmass is
    possible this evening. Robust buoyancy (3500-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) is
    present from SPC mesoanalysis supporting the potential for stronger
    updrafts. 30-35 kt of vertical shear from area VAD/VWPs will also be
    sufficient for some storm organization into clusters or small bowing
    segments. The primary uncertainty remains the amount of storm
    coverage and attendant severe risk. Hi-res guidance does show some
    potential for scattered storms by early early evening which would
    likely include a greater risk for damaging winds. While substantial
    uncertainty remains, a weather watch is being considered for
    portions of western KY, southern IN and extreme southern IL.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wwOgOpgg8gM4ZMv-cDKdyytqudHvlWBW2_EduilVFHAkmZ1_QvbjLzyBCAF2TyiZ1DMixlw8= exWfUt5-72kgVBRafw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37368597 37008653 36858693 36648747 36548892 36708919
    36968928 37488847 37818803 38178728 38358670 38508617
    38218577 37858569 37488589 37368597=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 20:42:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 132042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132042=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1527
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern OH...northern KY...and WV

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482...

    Valid 132042Z - 132215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and severe hail will remain a concern as
    thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon and early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that have matured this afternoon remain
    confined in a fairly narrow east-west corridor along/near the Ohio
    River. Some of this convection has exhibited supercellular
    characteristics, with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear providing
    supporting updraft organization. Strong instability, with MLCAPE
    ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg, will easily support continued
    thunderstorm intensity for the next couple of hours. Isolated large
    hail will remain a possibility with any supercell that remains
    discrete. Otherwise, damaging winds should become an increasing
    concern as convection will probably tend to grow upscale into small
    bowing clusters while moving eastward across northern KY, southern
    OH and WV.

    ..Gleason.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TS0K0zQeHR6iYZ32olsKgbM2rGrolDFAwv0ZnZUVxVBEyFJAbyJaYyAsNklCj01phfCrVwVs= l2xDUDGCDolX4ZxTXg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 39218468 39538312 39738198 39708083 39457987 39097952
    38327981 37838025 38338330 38718474 39218468=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)