ACUS11 KWNS 201630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201629=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-201730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...portions of Lower Michigan into northeastern
Indiana and northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201629Z - 201730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to begin over the
next hour, accompanied by an increase in severe risk. WW issuance
may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show
convection developing across parts of central and eastern Lower
Michigan at this time, near and ahead of an advancing surface cold
front. The moist boundary layer ahead of the front -- characterized
by dewpoints around 70 -- has continued to heat through midday,
which has now pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range. Continued/gradual heating will support continued
destabilization, and a corresponding increase in convective development/eventual storm initiation.

Moderately strong cyclonic/southwesterly flow currently resides
across Lower Michigan, on the southeastern side of the upper low
moving eastward across central portions of the U.P. Resulting shear
-- around 35 kt per a combination of VWP data and RAP soundings --
suggests potential for organized storms, including a couple of
supercells initially, later possibly growing upscale locally into
small-scale bands. While a tornado can't be ruled out, primary
severe risk will likely manifest as locally damaging gusts. Current indications are that storm coverage -- and thus degree of severe
risk -- will likely increase sufficient to warrant WW consideration
over the next half hour or so.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8aS4Mk00IqXkisNol3_AWFzqEpT3F5pqUmDJa9lacB9WkepK5EGcjN8dcNIW9z_P8eh2wxhkz= 7wWQlCHYAt299tMR2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43988453 44068291 43208243 41288300 41048403 41298526
41878543 42628505 43988453=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 131837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131836=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern WV...VA...DC...western/central
MD...and central/eastern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131836Z - 132100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and hail may exist as
thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon. The need for a watch
remains unclear, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across parts of the central Appalachians. More isolated activity is
attempting to deepen across parts of north-central into northeastern
PA, closer to the upper trough over NY and southern Quebec. A
surface lee trough is present along/east of the Appalachians/Blue
Ridge Mountains, with ample daytime heating acting to steepen
low-level lapse rates. Latest mesoanalysis shows a relative minimum
in instability along/east of the lee trough across parts of
central/eastern VA into central MD and eastern PA. This area appears
to have shallower low-level moisture based on area 12Z soundings,
and some lingering MLCIN.

Still, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings across this region suggest
that a well mixed boundary layer will support at least an isolated
damaging wind threat with any convection that can spread eastward
off the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear should also foster some thunderstorm
organization, with multicells to marginal supercells possible. Some
hail may occur with the strongest cores. With better large-scale
ascent focused farther north across NY and New England, overall
thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. The need for a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch this afternoon is also unclear, but observational
trends will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FFe1MZqPg2KJuFiMktfJt6_qFz1_kT75eFFiYeNAQDxekOufNpKnQZczMF7A6ObxNdUho-vA= nzpb17j58F_JKBD0VI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36898068 39057921 39887863 41777665 41747536 40947513
38517672 37207843 36657958 36898068=20


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