ACUS11 KWNS 190419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190419=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-190615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...northern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

Valid 190419Z - 190615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging wind and hail persist
across northwest North Dakota, and trends are being monitored for
increasing storm coverage into northeast North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...A complex area of storms is evolving across northwest
ND and far southeast SK, with new storms now forming near the MT/ND
border behind the leading activity. The air mass remains moist and
unstable, with steep lapse rates and deep-layer shear over 50 kt.
Over the next 1-2 hours, storms near the ND/SK border are expected
to merge, and could take on a more eastward motion. In addition,
cooling aloft persists with the shortwave trough, as evidenced by
the new storms to the southwest near the MT border.

The area east of WW 475 could eventually need a watch should the
storms along the international border move in a more easterly
direction.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7llAJFGyID5CDVj6ILBxxPCfhFj11sIzRUDH1ChAvFqOcSPxaIMvXj-jwvkBkIRObHNYN1F3I= GSZvRKzSqXy4brkN14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 49000411 49000275 48999996 49009950 49009613 48569629
48249651 47949693 47630227 47580364 47990403 49000411=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 130720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130720=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...southeast MO and northeast AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...480...

Valid 130720Z - 130845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479, 480
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts may continue for another
couple of hours across southeast MO into northeast AR.

DISCUSSION...A bowing cluster of storms tracking east/southeast
across south-central MO will continue to shift into parts of
southeast MO/northeast AR the next 1-2 hours. This bow has shown
some better organization, and increasing velocity signatures aloft
(about 4-6 kft ARL). The downstream airmass remains very moist and
moderately unstable. Effective shear magnitude around 25-30 kt
should aid in maintaining this convection with southeast extent. It
is unclear how far east/southeast near-severe caliber winds may
continue as low-level inhibition increases toward the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Instability also wanes with eastward extent and convection
will move further away from the eastern extent of a modest low-level
jet. While this may support a gradual weakening trend with time,
expected that 45-60 mph gusts will persist for at least the next 1-2
hours. The need for a downstream watch to the east of WW 479 and WW
480 is uncertain, and trends will continue to be monitored.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!63xBhzrJ40FyB7HwxQH2xSDucPIJn7YeOFsQ7elMe_jtO-YiVGL5nD9mVoI2v642EqVmB33Wb= o_vhtwT2gdrE2V5C8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37499192 36969031 36298959 35958969 35679027 35819111
36069185 36569242 36989260 37499192=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)