ACUS11 KWNS 182243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182242=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-190115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182242Z - 190115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop out of northeast Montana and
bring damaging winds and hail across the northern half of North
Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough will continue rapidly east
across MT, with surface low deepening over ND after 00Z. Scattered
strong to severe storms are already ongoing ahead of a cold front
across northeast MT, and these are expected to organize further as
they encounter stronger instability to the east. Strong deep-layer
shear and favorable storm relative inflow with backed surface winds
near the Canadian border will support a severe MCS and/or supercells
at times. Both damaging wind and hail appear likely, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out as the low-level jet increases this
evening.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oQoRYnLjqYLQInoNHDP7FSOXOOhi-yt_ZJ1cqIYgKBnFktEFt187H48wAT_b3ZsNz_EqBwp-= WiflI3dc-ZDbOJ5gKg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 49030407 49020247 49010002 49029803 48639810 48239831
47729890 47559962 47390110 47210305 47130402 49030407=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 130500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130459=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-130630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Lower MI into extreme northwest OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 478...

Valid 130459Z - 130630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 478 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a brief
tornado continues.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing early this morning in
association with an MCV and related surface low across southeast
lower MI. The KDTX VWP continues to depict a very favorable wind
profile for organized convection, with backed low-level winds and a
40-50 kt low-level jet. However, storm intensity continues to be
limited by weak instability, and this will likely remain the case as
convection spreads towards the remainder of southeast lower MI.
Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will remain
possible with ongoing convection until storms clear WW 478.

..Dean.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9979D_Aa8v6H5HkHlUO5BpVXA_x_0TRMg-AUHrQaUK7PI8lXbY83GPVHVCbbwMc6RLFgYAkRe= R9P5Rs7BpdUIst_iao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 42788359 42898287 42678234 42098228 41808262 41618331
41558436 41628466 41758465 41978420 42338385 42788359=20


=3D =3D =3D
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