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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1510

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 18, 2022 18:44:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 181844
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181844=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-182045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

    Areas affected...East Tennessee to western North Carolina and
    western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181844Z - 182045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Wind damage is possible through the afternoon as a line of
    weak thunderstorms moves across east Tennessee and into western
    North Carolina and Virginia. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A line of weak thunderstorms has been tracked in
    regional reflectivity mosaics over the past couple of hours.
    Recently, this line of cells has exhibited an increase in lightning
    counts coincident with cooling cloud top temperatures. Additionally,
    KMRX velocity data shows a few pockets of stronger winds within this
    line. This increase in intensity is likely the result of increasing
    buoyancy ahead of the line via diurnal warming within a moist air
    mass. Regional VWPs continue to sample weak flow aloft with latest
    estimates of nearly 20 knots of effective bulk shear. This will
    limit the overall severe potential, but steep low-level lapse rates
    (near 8 C/km) ahead of the line will support a wind damage potential
    across east TN and western VA/NC. Given the low-end environment a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_H570B4XyhAEHXuUdEWqgI82vc4CBrpnHpQJjatCeSspcieTjFLTUwMFUeI4qNreB5IUohnw3= 3zFCP4tGMkoIzho2bY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

    LAT...LON 34998506 36448456 36918297 37378131 37628022 37327956
    36697937 36048071 35498174 35118274 34808375 34748426
    34998506=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 01:22:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 130122
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130121=20
    NEZ000-130315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0821 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130121Z - 130315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible through the
    evening, with a threat of large hail and localized strong/severe
    gusts.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed across the
    NE Panhandle, with 2-inch hail recently reported northeast of
    Scottsbluff. While buoyancy is not overly strong, with MLCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses, deep-layer shear is quite
    favorable (effective shear of 50+ kt), and the ongoing supercell may
    continue to propagate along a weak surface boundary into
    west-central NE. Hail (possibly very large in the short term) will
    be the primary threat, though localized strong/severe gusts will
    also be possible.=20

    With the short-term threat expected to remain quite isolated, watch
    issuance is currently considered unlikely. Some increase in storm
    coverage is possible later tonight within a modest low-level warm
    advection regime, though it remains unclear as to whether any
    organized upscale growth (with a corresponding increase in
    severe-wind risk) will occur.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7n6eAd6PbkXztyV2rNtAuyDpw8kwDPyoYm0tIZmRsvgg3j9wC0X7ITXODRt6AEeAGEA5eXEw8= SxgIKsbq4UR2tUhcP8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42280337 42200314 41950135 41659972 40959931 40819959
    40860110 40930174 41190296 41350334 41700363 41950368
    42280337=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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