ACUS11 KWNS 240705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240705=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-240830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern WI and northern IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497...

Valid 240705Z - 240830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds should
continue early this morning.

DISCUSSION...An MCV has developed on the northern flank of a small
cluster of thunderstorms across southern WI/northern IL. A broad
swath of precipitation precedes this cluster associated with strong southwesterly low-level warm advection, which is hampering recovery
of the low-level airmass. Still, there is a narrow corridor of
sufficient instability ahead of the ongoing activity to support at
least some threat for isolated severe/damaging winds in the short
term, with evidence of enhanced inbound velocities aloft from KMKX.
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough over
the Upper Midwest will likely foster continued convective
organization with the MCV/cluster as they move eastward over the
next 1-2 hours. Eventually, this convection should reach a less
favorable airmass towards Lake Michigan, as prior convection has
mostly stabilized low levels.

..Gleason.. 07/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kjlEis7bKl3hTDciqPI8RXqSeh7KBXYR_Idy7PpCEk0CXJD4VpI-ACQTJDR1yXrkK0QqAoRq= tGygGH4JrFBZ7QZN_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42298979 42628954 43058942 43308961 43578965 43608919
43558848 43178796 42798791 42198806 41928828 42088967
42298979=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 161441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161440=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-161615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

Valid 161440Z - 161615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and a brief
tornado should continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped thunderstorms remain embedded
within a broad plume of warm-advection related precipitation across
parts of New England this morning. Both low and mid-level lapse
rates remain quite poor based on the 12Z observed soundings from
OKX/GYX. This is likely hampering updraft intensity to some extent,
with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less based on latest mesoanalysis
estimates. Even so, a veering/strengthening wind profile has been
noted through low/mid levels with recent VWPs from KBOX/KGYX.
Accounting for current thunderstorm motions yields around 100 m2/s2
of 0-1 km shear, which should be sufficient for occasional low-level
updraft rotation and some threat for a brief tornado. Isolated
damaging winds may also occur with water-loaded downdrafts in the
more linear structures that can be maintained.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kF-roK8FESW1-VAB1EjCIs_kwC3ZNoJcFTJGvoaIgDrTU_DYbzT9TJtusse6UPXFIsg_LC43= aeFjizsRp3CimaVw_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41367285 41907250 43407144 43807088 43597036 42907073
42427095 41817143 41487179 41237215 41227259 41367285=20


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