ACUS11 KWNS 172335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172335=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas into far
western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172335Z - 180200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail or wind is expected through
evening, from southeast Missouri into parts of northern Arkansas and
into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually increased in coverage ahead of a
weak front, from south-central MO into northwest AR. This boundary
should continue pushing south this evening, providing a weak focus
for development in a very moist air mass. MLCAPE generally exceeds
2000 J/kg ahead of the storm cluster across southeast MO, and will
remain uncapped.=20

A propagating cluster of cells appears most likely in the near term,
with brief periods of hail and locally damaging gusts. Southwest 850
mb winds will increase to over 30 kt tonight, further aiding propagating/backbuilding updrafts. Initially, some of the cells may
tend to become undercut by the outflow. However, a more substantial
wind threat is possible should storms continue to increase in
coverage and merge outflows.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oqPXdHTvw8cCM6cueAH4LGYzqdUF7ViJhJb1getfhWldz5e8KSFgfqm_iaoDHIxODg8phymp= jQa0LFGQp_1qPLvUb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 35329235 35679272 36079282 36429280 36739262 37169205
37589149 37799079 37699010 37348895 36758851 36088836
35638909 35429050 35329235=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 121225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121225=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...far southeast NE into western/central IA and
northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

Valid 121225Z - 121400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will remain possible across WW 476
over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing MCS will continue to quickly
shift east/southeast across the region this morning. Measured gusts
have decreased across IA compared to earlier gusts over eastern NE.
Lower instability with eastward extent, as well as weakening
low-level flow, and a persistent cluster of convection across
central IA ahead of the main MCS, may all contribute to a gradually
diminishing severe risk after 14z. Nevertheless, gusts of 45-60 mph
appear likely to persist another couple of hours as convection moves
across a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. There
is some potential that after a relative morning lull, the MCS could reinvigorate later this morning as convection approaches IL, though
confidence in this scenario is low.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98NioOdljABiez5MInjt5xpoIkomyayV93uuU5pE_YWJF6uQ74wvrizDWZVnDFQwAbJT1taa9= zvMOQai5ixhvGpXYh0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 42799453 42189282 41259201 40689236 40139347 39909445
39919537 40069629 40539657 40899642 41179529 41509490
42309477 42639475 42799453=20


=3D =3D =3D
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