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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1503

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 17, 2022 23:26:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 172326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172325=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-180100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

    Areas affected...extreme northeastern Montana and far northwestern
    North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172325Z - 180100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A lone supercell in southern Saskatchewan may cross the
    international border and pose a localized risk for isolated
    hail/damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty on the longevity of any severe
    threat remains high and a weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar was tracking a lone
    supercell across far southern Saskatchewan near the North
    Dakota/Montana border. Current radar and satellite trends suggest
    this storm may cross the international border in the next hour.
    Surface obs and SPC mesoanalysis to the south of the storm indicate
    a warm (90-100F+ temps) and potentially unstable environment.
    However, surface dewpoints are likely overestimated with satellite
    based PWAT and strong mixing suggesting more reasonable values in
    the upper 50s to low 60s F. Modified RAP soundings suggests lower
    MLCAPE (approx 1000 J/kg) and higher inhibition south of the border
    which could result in a weakening of the storm as it approaches.
    However, some severe risk may linger given 40-50 kt of effective
    shear and recent Environment Canada reports of severe weather. Given
    the uncertainty, a weather watch is unlikely, though a localized
    severe risk may occur for a couple hours this evening.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8P6SqXBMcpEhOR2WdWQ0X7oaz0YCXGf3ha34U_BiaZn36-cNJZ--svJKnSbvoUkSndckdSELm= ngsg1ZCLS7tzwffA60$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

    LAT...LON 49030388 49020292 48920262 48770250 48530248 48220274
    47990324 47980368 48080401 48410420 48690423 49020414
    49030388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 12, 2023 09:41:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 120941
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120941=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-121115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...far southeast SD...eastern NE into western/central
    IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

    Valid 120941Z - 121115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm gusts will continue across WW 475.

    DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing MCS will continue to track
    southeast into eastern NE/western IA this next few hours. A swath of
    intense gusts to 75 mph will be possible near the apex of a bowing
    segment from near Pierce and Madison Counties toward the Omaha
    vicinity through 12z. With time, gradual weakening of the bow is
    expected with south/east extent as the low-level jet weakens after
    12z. However, given the well developed nature of convection and
    strong deep-layer northwesterly flow amid strong instability, severe
    potential could persist at least briefly beyond the eastern/southern
    bounds of WW 475. A downstream watch across parts of central IA
    likely will be needed.

    ..Leitman.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_EM6BcUzSPPquqsjSMySnT6FG22M9if2y8RwPKjHRn31RXJ8xlrAmbRg9G3lKDEKFK70sE5On= 9zQ7VxDzG5tsIRsPPc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42279921 42989752 43289656 43239636 43119580 42409378
    41939283 41589250 41149236 40709235 40569341 40419553
    40729730 41709880 42079917 42279921=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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