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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1502

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 17, 2022 21:52:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 172152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172152=20
    UTZ000-NVZ000-172345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

    Areas affected...portions of far eastern NV into western UT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172152Z - 172345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of high-based storms may produce a damaging wind
    gust or two through this evening. A weather watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and lightning data
    showed a semi-organized cluster of high-based storms moving east out
    of NV into western UT. Area surface observations show very hot
    conditions (temperatures 100F+) across much of northern UT,
    including the SLC Metro vicinity. Continued heating is supporting
    modest buoyancy for high-based convection, with around 500 J/kg of
    MUCAPE observed from SPC mesoanalysis. The dry low-level airmass is
    supportive of very strong evaporative cooling potential with deep
    inverted v profiles evident on area model soundings. As such, an
    occasional downburst may produce strong to severe gusts through this
    evening. Given the weak forcing and limited vertical shear
    (generally less than 20 kt) storm organization will be modulated by
    the strength of any cold pools, and is expected to be minimal. While
    a severe gust or two is possible through this evening, the lack of
    greater storm organization potential suggests a weather watch is
    unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57Qj-9z0Mt3Z2_wFBCr3LPmGsaG8jcLXlRXU-fWSdgqzK8JFUyUQo9K-sVpO3MX20jzrG9ssA= 4S8C6y8jAbX5Po17mM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...

    LAT...LON 40511455 41011408 41291324 41231234 40911195 40441189
    40141192 39731215 39021278 38801323 38801368 38781402
    38951432 40511455=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 12, 2023 07:40:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 120740
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120739=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-120915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0239 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...southern SD into northern NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

    Valid 120739Z - 120915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster near the Nebraska/South Dakota
    border is expected to pose a risk for damaging gusts greater than 65
    mph through early morning.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storm over south-central SD/north-central
    NE has intensified over the past 30 minutes or so. Most recently, a
    severe gust to 62 kt was observed at KVTN. IR satellite imagery also
    is showing some modest cloud top cooling. This cluster is moving
    southeast into the axis of a stronger southerly low-level jet of
    around 25-30 kt. This should aid in further organization amid
    moderate to strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and effective
    shear magnitudes greater than 55 kt. This organizing cluster should
    promote development of a fast-moving bowing MCS, and the better
    chances for a swath of damaging gust potential will exist across
    southeast SD near the NE state line into north-central and northeast
    NE through early morning.

    ..Leitman.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59fphi6zfeqgt8SYECt09pmMtZyNt36Uaq_LnDTM6vXaoBsBShBDSwKIFIwtW4rIlu5Fy6Nbs= SBOJgQmmcVDZTZJ8Mo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42590076 43100065 43620000 43959877 43809771 43289675
    42669634 41799615 41679636 41539711 41589787 41849925
    42370054 42590076=20


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