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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 17, 2022 19:09:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 171909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171909=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-172115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

    Areas affected...Central Kentucky to western West Virginia and far
    southern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171909Z - 172115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification is possible through the mid
    afternoon as storms migrate northeast into the upper Ohio River
    Valley. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is
    possible if a severe threat becomes apparent.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have begun to
    develop across central KY and far northern TN over the past 30-60
    minutes. While this activity is currently fairly shallow and weak
    (based on IR and lightning trends), gradual intensification is
    possible through the mid afternoon. Visible imagery show some degree
    of clearing downstream across eastern KY and western WV with surface temperatures responding by warming into the low 80s. Areas of
    shallow cumulus are also noted, which is further indication of
    boundary-layer destabilization. Lift ahead of an upstream MCV will
    help maintain the ongoing convection and may support additional
    development. Mean flow along the general axis of initiation suggests
    gradual upscale growth into one or more clusters is likely. Recent
    reflectivity trends show some interactions already ongoing, which
    supports this idea and may be indicative of an increasing wind
    threat downstream if convection can intensify. The degree of organization/intensification (and the subsequent severe threat)
    remains somewhat uncertain given the modest effective-layer shear
    (estimated to be around 20-25 knots based on regional ACARs
    soundings and latest VWP observations). Trends will continue to be
    monitored, and a watch is possible if sufficient storm organization/intensification occurs.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Bc1LQeiV7neBXUNi-N9wDbTTGqGHRr09id1JymmO_-qGIjTTUx3Wu8gky9OdBoIkvkBzmUEM= HUNJ43HX6Zw_aJow9w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37458597 38488373 39298243 39278116 38848021 38308007
    37858032 37228217 36948335 36638533 36688589 37058610
    37458597=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 12, 2023 00:27:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 120027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120027=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...Northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...474...

    Valid 120027Z - 120200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473, 474
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the
    northern High Plains this evening. Large hail will be common with
    this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Heights are being suppressed across MT/northern WY
    early this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will
    soon begin to dig southeast toward the western Dakotas. Scattered
    severe supercells have evolved ahead of this feature across eastern
    MT into western SD and latest MRMS radar data suggest several
    updrafts are generating hail in excess of 2 inches. Later this
    evening LLJ should respond to the short wave and increase across
    western NE. This should encourage upscale growth as convection
    spreads southeast. Over the last hour or so, a few updrafts have
    struggled over Cherry County NE along the well-defined synoptic
    boundary. Given that surface temperatures are only in the 80s along
    this wind shift convection may continue to struggle to initiate.
    Even so, multiple thunderstorm clusters will spread across western
    SD toward northern NE later this evening. At that time a new watch
    may be warranted.

    ..Darrow.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ABDAqjldSpmFP0vdCQ4jywpggs_CC3NW0k9bAUz9OpN9i1phKLYf68j_hqNCPITyVTxSj84z= wSiipI1vm-n08ZZMiY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46660289 45540201 43940149 43119985 42420081 43440423
    44880643 46890493 46660289=20


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