1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1499

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 17, 2022 18:21:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 171821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171821=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-172015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1499
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

    Areas affected...Central to northern Virginia and central Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171821Z - 172015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off the Blue Ridge mountains will
    meander into central and northern Virginia, and perhaps central
    Maryland, through the afternoon. Sporadic damaging winds and large
    hail are possible, but a watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional reflectivity mosaics show convection
    developing along the Blue Ridge Mountains in western VA over the
    past 30-60 minutes. GOES IR imagery confirms that this is the onset
    of robust deep convection with rapid cloud top cooling noted. ACARs
    soundings from the downstream environment show that temperatures
    have sufficiently warm to negate any prior inhibition, with
    mixed-layer CAPE profiles extending upwards of 10-12 km. While
    deep-layer flow is fairly weak, 30-35 knot winds were sampled above
    7 km, which should allow for sufficient storm-top ventilation to
    support modest storm organization. This factor, combined with
    somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (near 7-8 C/km) should foster a
    damaging wind potential, and perhaps a few instances of large hail,
    as storms migrate east/northeast through the afternoon. Storm
    longevity and coverage are both uncertain, and a watch is current
    not anticipated. However, the influence of an MCV over the upper OH
    River Valley may provide sufficient lift to maintain at least some
    threat into the early evening.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qCoVFb8RauaX6B4dDMZasZ8Q6YatH_HGxmtrIF_MGIXt7nXI5VqgMSxInBvTNpjovb0zYpzj= 3dQWzu3DP1vk7G-Uhk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37447993 38047938 38757909 39237880 39497843 39607754
    39567672 39377664 38697666 37937725 37437822 37157934
    36997988 37268008 37447993=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 19:42:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 111942
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111941=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-112115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1499
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois...far northwest
    Indiana...and far eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111941Z - 112115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
    afternoon across northern Illinois and vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...Storms developed earlier this afternoon along the
    intersection of a lake breeze and cold front across northeast
    Illinois earlier this afternoon. Storm propagation quickly took
    these storms to the cool side of the boundary with a less unstable
    and more capped marine airmass. However, additional thunderstorms
    have now developed west of the lake breeze along the cold front in
    northern Illinois. These storms will have a longer residence time in
    the more unstable airmass and in the region of convergence along the
    surface front. Therefore, the chance for strong to isolated severe
    storms seems more likely than ongoing storms across northeast
    Illinois. Overall, weak shear (~15 knots per LOT VWP) should limit
    storm organization and intensity and thus a watch is unlikely.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6anz4lAgKaoi6hNct67EAhPQNuSYG1Rg-x4wnInRwLaGvgdKmrq3wYAYWY6C-uqSVMUI4pOZ5= 11P-lA7R4Kw-DP1lJk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41849095 41959035 41929027 41958977 42078916 42108860
    42148788 41848684 41458683 41038773 41048911 41109035
    41339083 41519097 41849095=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)