1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1485

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 15, 2022 06:27:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 150627
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150627=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-150830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1485
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

    Areas affected...Far East-Central/Southeast
    ND...West-Central/Central/Southwest MN...West-Central WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150627Z - 150830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and/or sporadic damaging wind gusts
    are possible for the next several hours across portions of the Upper
    Midwest.

    DISCUSSION...Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving into
    the Upper Midwest, augmented by low-level warm advection into the
    region, is fostering elevated thunderstorm development from far
    east-central ND into central MN. Signs of additional development
    exist from east-central MN into west-central WI, to the north of a
    warm front extending from near the ND/SD/MN border intersection
    across central MN and into southwest WI.=20

    Recent mesoanalysis estimates max 2-6 km AGL lapse rates generally
    around 7 deg C per km across MN, with value below 7 deg C per km in
    much of WI. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s/low 70s south
    of the front in MN, with temperatures generally in the mid 70s.
    Advection of this moist air mass across the frontal zone should aid
    in additional storm development as the shortwave trough continues southeastward. MPX VAD recently sampled 46 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear,
    suggesting enough buoyancy and shear is in place for a few stronger
    storms. Primary threat with any more organized storms will be large
    hail. Low-level stability is in place, but it is modest and shallow,
    so a few stronger downdrafts could still reach the surface as well.
    Limited overall severe coverage should preclude the need for watch.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6CQyDTV7eJPqrwkO9iET0Ngqv1CaCd-5Sldgs8sKmgmBz4he5blwHz_FXR7KhU_STQSAq9lT= O5OPzeodoBw9pDKXA8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46839749 47549659 44719029 43829138 44729413 46079708
    46839749=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 20:08:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 102008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102007=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-102230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1485
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern ID and western MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102007Z - 102230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this
    afternoon. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the
    main concerns.

    DISCUSSION...Low-topped thunderstorms are gradually increasing in
    coverage across the higher terrain in eastern ID and far western MT
    -- aided by broad large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave trough
    over the Pacific Northwest. During the next couple hours, continued
    diurnal heating amid cloud breaks should yield weakly unstable
    surface-based inflow for this activity. A belt of around 30-kt
    midlevel southwesterly flow (per regional VWP) accompanying the
    shortwave trough should support brief updraft organization and an
    attendant risk of marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts
    with the stronger/longer-lived cores. The severe risk is expected to
    remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ELlCa0gLjzUnwmvFwcmVsA0liIFzHheG2_Oo_a9l8Lm9IPwfjQj1BDCxPYrpVaYwRodX8e11= dWOtxAtEcu4nzL9fJA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 45161148 44891234 44771299 44741352 44831402 45091444
    45491471 45991485 46531485 47041462 47361430 47671382
    47781339 47881267 47791211 47661172 47261121 46561096
    45931093 45391113 45161148=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)