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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1480

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 14, 2022 17:57:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 141757
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141756=20
    FLZ000-142100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141756Z - 142100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the
    strongest thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
    unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has recently developed along both sea
    breezes on the west and east coasts of the FL Peninsula. MLCAPE of
    2500-3000 J/kg will be common across this area with continued robust
    diurnal heating. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures associated
    with a weak upper low over northern Cuba and the Bahamas are also
    contributing to this substantial buoyancy. Even though low-level
    winds will remain weak, some modest enhancement to the mid and
    upper-level flow field was noted in 12Z soundings from MFL/KEY due
    to the proximity of the upper low. Some anvil-level venting should
    occur with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will develop
    over much of the FL Peninsula in the next few hours. This venting,
    along with the cool mid-level temperatures and moderate to strong
    instability, should aid in the production of isolated marginally
    severe hail with the more robust updrafts. Occasional strong to
    damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates
    continue to steepen with daytime heating and as DCAPE increases to
    around 1000 J/kg. Still, current expectations are for the overall
    severe threat to remain isolated/marginal owing to the weak
    deep-layer shear. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at
    this time.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9TBKWoJmQor2EOOTULe6YR_PycAl0JE8x12vmpmXzeW-MW4nLA2FXnt5HCmRWeTOdHQGqbaDK= dsBddR8us0oNlWUPWE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27798290 28548272 29148276 29398208 29138141 28378084
    27628052 26968019 26128041 25438091 25398121 25818172
    26538224 27798290=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 09, 2023 20:18:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 092018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092017=20
    NCZ000-092145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

    Valid 092017Z - 092145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms with sporadic damaging wind
    gusts will continue east to the Atlantic coast this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Damaging wind gusts have become less frequent over the
    last hour as the earlier squall line has become more broken.
    However, ample instability still exists east of this line with
    MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear in excess of 30 knots
    per SPC mesoanalysis and the LTX VWP. Therefore, some stronger
    downdrafts remain possible over the next few hours before this line
    of storms moves into the Atlantic.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ND8v0T4OUPxALa8dwGawYKBPybDzzVBRjl04pt9W0uGM1EPnxdwqHSiUP9S0BdKU8TCpRhOc= 1rX6kFw41CPRhqaPd8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34207865 35677742 35867680 35627546 35207505 34777555
    34087682 33607760 33517807 33767844 34207865=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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