ACUS11 KWNS 132200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132200=20
MTZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...east-central and northeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 132200Z - 132300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for widely scattered severe gusts will likely
spread into northeast MT this evening. Severe gusts ranging from
60-85 mph are possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows clear skies over
east-central and northeast MT this afternoon. A couple of
thunderstorm clusters are located farther southwest and west over
the central portion of the state. Surface conditions show hot
temperatures from Billings northeast to Glasgow (mid to upper 90s)
but an increase in low-level moisture is evident in surface
dewpoints (ranging from near 50 deg in central MT to the lower 60s
in northeast MT). As the storm activity gradually moves into the
richer low-level moisture over the next couple of hours, additional
storms and a greater propensity for both coverage of severe gusts
and an increase in intensity is expected. Model forecast 850 mb
flow increases by early evening over MT which should aid in storm
sustenance and contribute to greater deep-layer shear and storm
organizational potential.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uyc9mWTFWHQaz5WPXjeQwfXgDyZl9rSmphRw2rUxBXxSXRQcoiU9gqwP54ejzMNbAv0tWND6= Rtw6sJIfqnBnx8eey4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46660898 47970838 48930750 48980528 48360490 46810539
46280651 45960776 45750843 46660898=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091655=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...northeast Virginia and central Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 091655Z - 091800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures across northeast Virginia and central
Maryland have warmed into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the
low 70s. This has eroded most of the inhibition across the region
where MLCAPE is now 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Weak storms which have formed
along the pre-frontal trough across north-central Virginia will
continue east and are expected to intensify as they interact with
better surface based instability to the east. In addition, some
storms may develop ahead of this line as ascent increases ahead of
the mid-level shortwave trough.=20

Effective shear around 25 to 35 knots will be sufficient for a
multicell storm mode and a threat for damaging wind gusts through
the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
within the next hour.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Q677IBj38mnsBuubOCyjMz34odbhTlFnasM5nJubHQ0HMK-2iQNI8KGUcDTtQnWALsHF4ncS= 1ajZhhpupjHx4Nw6g0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 37657790 37947822 38937803 39657771 39477682 39347558
38767500 38307502 37757536 37587555 37557629 37517661
37527712 37657790=20


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