ACUS11 KWNS 132041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132041=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into western
Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

Valid 132041Z - 132215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain a concern this afternoon as storms
move south-southwest across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466. Storms
across central Mississippi have the best chance at producing
additional damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS continues to propagate
south-southwest across central MS, with multicells continuing to
develop into western Alabama via a moist, unstable airmass. Given
continued heating ahead of the cold pools associated with the
storms, southward propagation of these cold pools should persist,
with new cells continuously regenerating along gust fronts and
promoting damaging gust potential. At the moment, the best chance
for damaging gusts would be in central MS, where a more organized
cold pool continues to propagate west-southwest into locally higher
buoyancy (i.e. 3000 J/kg MLCAPE).

..Squitieri.. 07/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_WWUJDZQvIo-3n_pYi1KtCAFG79QyJariVeBpxSxiG7VZLQ2CyqgFWXog2DMUcwFHC1xaFFVB= d8keeVVBDtzMq1hMqw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34019089 33308985 33238921 33428859 33528790 33338713
32968693 32618690 32318698 32058730 31938789 31848890
31818985 31769049 31879097 32079118 32699126 33119137
34019089=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091134=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast OK into north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

Valid 091134Z - 091300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong gusts to 40-60 mph and near 1 inch diameter hail
will be possible in the short term, with severe potential
diminishing with southeast extent.

DISCUSSION...The MCS moving east/southeast across southeast OK/north
TX as become less organized over the past hour or so. This is likely
due to a combination of convection moving away from the southerly
low-level jet to the west and into an area of weaker
instability/strong surface-based inhibition. Nevertheless, modest
MUCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will maintain
convection with southeast extent. Measured wind gusts have been
lower over the past hour, with max speeds generally around 45-55 mph
noted in regional surface observations. Severe potential is expected
to diminish with eastward extent over the next 1-2 hours, though
locally strong to severe gusts are still possible in the short term. Additionally, a couple of instances of near 1 inch in diameter hail
may occur as well.

..Leitman.. 07/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MtotCMFJgEAcKDlJXRiW5Lz06Sk9a6fUOEyrtyVOp1uTOkM6Fft8VnYTZE7AMNCuoopWYSBP= FHYIc3gw9zYJR_Q8pQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35259589 35039471 34339443 33129474 32939583 32899706
33069791 33439802 34109703 34779633 35209606 35259589=20


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