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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 19:11:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 121911
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121910=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-122115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY into far western VA
    and far northeastern TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121910Z - 122115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for mainly damaging winds may develop this
    afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage across
    parts of central/eastern KY this afternoon along and near a weak
    cold front. A very moist low-level airmass is present to the south
    of this boundary, with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to mid
    70s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of
    this moist airmass are contributing to around 1500-2500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates. This region remains on the
    southern periphery of an upper trough over the Northeast. But,
    mid-level west-northwesterly flow does increase to around 30-35 kt
    based on latest VWP estimates from KLVX/KJKL. Similar values of
    deep-layer shear should be enough for modest updraft organization,
    with loosely organized multicells possible. Occasional damaging wind
    gusts should be the main threat as these thunderstorms develop
    southeastward across eastern KY and vicinity through the rest of the
    afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient thunderstorm
    coverage and intensity will be realized to justify a watch. But,
    observational trends will be closely monitored.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YydVmgvT1L-n0soKQmVaeBIe6-lJmJo_V4P_Nc6FuRq2aPN8MyRkOeouREDmbutcnTXw2w4I= LfJ7JJvnpB9BZW3AIg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 37268519 38068280 37238184 36628249 36288372 36298477
    37268519=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 23:24:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 072324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072324=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0624 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma...Far Southern
    Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

    Valid 072324Z - 080130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop eastward into western
    Oklahoma over the next hour. Wind damage and isolated large hail
    will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be
    needed across parts of western Oklahoma, and possibly northward into
    far southern Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently ongoing across the Texas
    Panhandle. This line is located near a maximum in instability, where
    the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
    addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 45
    knots with some directional shear in the low-levels. This will
    support a severe threat as the line continues to move eastward this
    evening. The line of severe storms is expected to track along and
    north of a quasi-stationary front extending east-southeastward
    across western and south-central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts and
    isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch
    issuance will be needed across parts of western Oklahoma within the
    hour. The watch could be needed in parts of far southern Kansas if
    the line can develop slightly further to the north.

    ..Broyles.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ib1c6iMQgMghvycryl9OdH1hWGtCNqBFBUJI5FCy_gD222ORzBWVoQQ1AA4vTxco5j4UjX-S= 3_rX2S1S3wn8QlhkQE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35559845 36569821 37079848 37219897 37199991 37010024
    36680048 36440062 36060087 35230162 34620182 34200116
    34170025 34449945 34999880 35559845=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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