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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1450

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 11, 2022 18:06:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 111806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111805=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-112000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1450
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern/Central MN...Western WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111805Z - 112000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging
    wind gusts are possible this afternoon from central MN into western
    WI.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms have developed along the
    western periphery of an outflow boundary moving south over the
    northern MN/WI border vicinity. Early-day cloudiness has tempered
    heating downstream of this outflow but recent clearing has allow
    temperatures to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints are in
    the mid-60s, allowing for some modest buoyancy, particularly in
    east-central MN where surface temperatures a bit warmer. A few
    stronger storms are possible, but limited buoyancy should limit the
    overall storm strength and severe coverage.

    Farther west (into more of central MN), cumulus has been gradually
    deepening ahead of a compact shortwave trough moving through
    northern MN. Modest buoyancy has developed over this region as well,
    with a few stronger storms possible this afternoon. Some isolated
    hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible, but coverage is
    currently expected to remain isolated.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5fhgl9JMlwj_mDsD_f6mFKana4XOlNOQpC1ZKCx7U_m6S8xIFJ1GFo2y7F14AdAU1jiI4AwV0= kS-xkDmwArugFv4F7M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47119522 47329398 45919226 45419037 43819052 44479352
    45629526 47119522=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 05:50:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 070549
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070549=20
    NEZ000-WYZ000-070645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1450
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...far east-central WY into western NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456...

    Valid 070549Z - 070645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts and hail may persist another couple
    of hours across WW 456 as storms move out of far east-central
    Wyoming and across western Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving over extreme east-central
    WY, along with another cluster over the northwest NE Panhandle will
    continue to shift east/southeast the next few hours. Latest radar
    trends have shown a gradual weakening trend in convection, though a
    few stronger cores are still evident. While boundary-layer
    inhibition has increased, region VWP data indicate favorable
    vertical shear, and a modest southerly low-level jet, along with
    1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. This should be sufficient to sustain strong
    convection for at least a couple more hours. This activity should
    move on the fringes of steeper midlevel lapse rates, supporting a
    continued risk for hail. The cooling boundary-layer will likely
    limit severe gust potential, but a few strong gusts are still
    possible. Given weakening instability and increasing inhibition with
    eastward extent, a downstream watch is not anticipated.

    ..Leitman.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9zmBColIkNXFX9njx2wkHX7ncZZq0HqRZVKKYXcei2V5EjJDf5VCliJd4u8nVwymixfUurWDS= BCpqz7cVqT-9lkHpt8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42720314 42680160 41920082 41480085 41240170 41280262
    41450382 41760428 42130456 42660448 42720314=20


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