ACUS11 KWNS 102148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102148=20
NDZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Northwest to north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102148Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk
for large hail and severe winds this evening. Storm coverage remains
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few thunderstorms
developing across northwest ND ahead of an upper-level shortwave
perturbation. Although much of ND resides within a post-frontal
regime with westerly winds and gradual drying from the west,
boundary-layer moisture ahead of the developing cells (where
dewpoints are in the mid 60s) is supporting adequate mixed-layer
buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg) for further thunderstorm development.
However, RAP forecast soundings hint that dry mid-level air combined
with slim CAPE profiles may result in considerable dry air
entertainment that could hinder convective intensity in the absence
of stronger forcing for ascent. Low-level water vapor imagery and
MRMS vertical ice and echo top trends appear to be bearing out this
scenario, at least for the near term. It is possible that storms can
intensify with the approach of the upper wave in the coming hours.
Strong flow aloft associated with this feature is yielding elongated
hodographs that may support a few strong/severe cells capable of
pose a large hail/severe wind risk if intensification can take
place. Trends will continue to be monitored as storms move eastward
into north-central ND through the evening hours.

..Moore.. 07/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LI5Q-hAGqn7Y3jPShY9W586Fuet-OwufpnYenQDIwehAehxhqF2oiGLf3GFkk1sWFSAVK77v= cx0vTFVKPiY2TOckQk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 49050377 49089983 48429875 47579878 47079980 46970089
47200183 47580309 48000368 48740388 49050377=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 061713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061713=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061713Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm complex is moving eastward into the area.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon, with
the primary threats being locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

DISCUSSION...An area of ongoing and developing thunderstorms is
currently moving through southeastern OK into the Arklatex region,
with local MESH cores recently exceeding 1". The storms are
generally propagating east-southeastward along a cold front, which
is being convectively reinforced in central/southern OK by the
system's cold pool. Convective redevelopment across southeastern OK
-- and surface temperatures warming into the mid-/upper-80s -- are
evidence of negligible remaining MLCIN as of 17z. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg currently resides in the Arklatex region, which is
expected to increase gradually throughout the afternoon. Vertical
wind shear is rather meager but should gradually strengthen during
the next few hours, perhaps to around 15 kts of 0-6-km shear by 20z.
In line with the destabilizing environment, numerical guidance
depicts increasing convective coverage through peak diurnal heating.
Increasing shear amidst steadily steepening lapse rates (to around
7.5 C/km in the lowest 3 km AGL) could foster sporadic damaging wind
gusts and small hail with the strongest storms by mid-afternoon.
Overall severe coverage appears rather limited, and watch issuance
is not anticipated.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61BD-rTuTaVJvoIg2o68nX2Oy9gomHkajQpvpJVZrrxEA0lvTUYLgIePa8Z8WXkhQ5hpjoDE5= GbhekTiyqxB7Yo1Ry8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32219282 32309356 32719468 33289536 33969555 34629545
35179483 35269372 34979269 34149176 33259113 32539139
32159191 32219282=20


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