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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 10, 2022 20:25:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 102025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102024=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

    Areas affected...portions of far northeast Colorado into the
    Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102024Z - 102200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A short-term, isolated threat for severe gusts exists with
    storms that are initiating off of the higher terrain in
    Colorado/Wyoming. A clustering of storms and the potential for a
    greater severe wind threat may develop by this evening across
    western into central Nebraska. A WW issuance is unlikely in the
    near-term.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures continue to rise into the 100-110
    F range ahead of a surface cold front across extreme northeast
    Colorado into southwest Nebraska, with 50+ T/Td spreads noted. RAP
    forecast soundings show a dry, mixed boundary layer extending to
    600-500 mb in altitude. Given the presence of 9 + C/km surface-500
    mb lapse rates (per 19Z mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings),
    efficient evaporative cooling should support at least isolated
    severe gusts in the next couple of hours with any robust storm that
    can develop, even with 1000 J/kg SBCAPE constrained above 600 mb in
    a tall, skinny vertical profile. Since storms are expected to remain
    isolated in the next few hours, a WW issuance is not currently
    anticipated. However, several guidance members suggest that cold
    pool mergers may encourage storms to cluster within a modestly
    sheared environment (i.e. 30 kts effective bulk shear) later this
    afternoon. As such, a more robust severe wind threat may develop by
    late afternoon/early evening, especially farther east toward central
    Nebraska.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7deQxP-E_vPTBsKw-ZFL5nxhDo5cBz--ywcQXuenGzjzaVzNekcbY2p64icz5O0X7OqJrd_Ca= 4zzjlRBP9q5eopg0i8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40900488 41230480 41460414 41600248 41540119 41260070
    40970062 40530088 40220156 39820234 39640271 39570296
    39580333 39680368 39860411 40070434 40900488=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 06, 2023 11:07:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 061107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061106=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-061230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of west-central into southwestern OK and
    western north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

    Valid 061106Z - 061230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat persists. The
    need for a downstream watch remains unclear, but an extension in
    area to WW 451 has been made to address the short-term severe
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...A small MCS now moving across west-central into
    southwestern OK has produced mainly sub-severe wind gusts up to
    around 50 mph over the past hour or so based on Mesonet and
    ASOS/AWOS observations. Nearly all high-resolution guidance
    available indicates this cluster will slowly weaken over the next
    couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet diminishes.
    Observations have yet to show this weakening trend, and up to 1000
    J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear may still support
    some threat for convective organization with the cluster for the
    next hour or two. If the MCS can maintain its intensity, then an
    isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts would continue into
    more of southwestern OK and perhaps parts of western north TX. The
    need for a downstream watch remains unclear given the eventual
    weakening trend anticipated. But, a local extension in area to
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 has been made to address the continued
    short-term severe threat.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5km4kxc2tuLzQVadDwjEHNTBAvoc6LKwIDDQM5W5yDzRPUkm5mb69U0GsgAP9Nxnul1889eP9= ZLma6fdyaImcFa2iJU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35129995 35459961 35789924 35499803 34319759 33829793
    33969955 35129995=20


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