ACUS11 KWNS 100659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100659=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-100830-
Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022
Areas affected...western and central ND
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...
Valid 100659Z - 100830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated large hail continue to be
possible across western North Dakota. A downstream severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of central
North Dakota.
DISCUSSION...Two clusters of storms are current moving out of
eastern MT into western ND. The northern most cluster is near the
ND/Canadian border, and may continue to lift slightly northeast
across the international border. Observational data has been limited
due to the ongoing KGGW 88-D outage, however lightning trends
coupled with convection moving into range of KBIS and KMBX indicate
this northern cluster may pose a lesser severe threat with eastward
extent compared to the cluster over Dawson, Wibaux and Fallon
Counties in far eastern MT. WW 453 should continue to encapsulate
the threat associated with the northern cluster. It is unclear how
much of north-central ND may need to be considered for any
downstream watch issuance, as the threat may mostly shift north into
southeast SK/southern MB.
The southern cluster of storms is shifting east at about 45-55 kt.
On this track, it is expected to move out of WW 453 by around
08-0830z. A strongly unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s resides across central ND amid intense bulk shear. A
modest southerly low-level jet is also indicated in latest
mesoanalysis data and from the KBIS VWP. This should support
continued storm organization and a damaging wind potential may
spread east of WW 453. A downstream watch issuance likely will be
needed into portions of central ND in the next hour or so.
..Leitman.. 07/10/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rP4lKV6LDJ9n-ew4kLnhs4PhMbd6kLgKVPX1e_mUJwB7oqjo48cu55xUGC0VyPtpq7q_jkTn= QrNamT7dYHhbjlPT_4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46550498 46880498 47460418 48080395 48900388 49060354
49160271 49120138 48920001 48429912 47629843 46859841
46619840 46409855 46259877 46229903 46180023 46160181
46160218 46230420 46390485 46550498=20
=3D =3D =3D
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