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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1427

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 09, 2022 19:48:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 091948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091948=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

    Areas affected...Central/northern MS/AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091948Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
    afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts are expected to
    be the main threat. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
    northern MS/AL this afternoon, along and ahead of a weak cold front
    that is sagging southward across the area, and also near an outflow
    boundary across northeast AL. While midlevel lapse rates are
    generally weak, substantial heating of a very moist boundary layer
    has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 2000-3500 J/kg across the
    region. Deep-layer flow is also weak, though a slight enhancement to
    midlevel northwesterly flow associated with a weak upper trough may
    provide sufficient shear for some loosely organized cells/clusters
    as storms evolve this afternoon. Large PW and steep low-level lapse
    rates will support a threat of isolated wet microbursts with initial
    discrete convection. A somewhat greater threat of scattered damaging
    wind may develop later this afternoon into the early evening, as
    storm and outflow mergers occur and one or more loosely organized
    clusters move southward with time. Watch issuance remains possible
    this afternoon in order to cover this potential damaging wind
    threat.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-NNdj1C9m1-96Ysx9W5rQRgbdcW8C3AXyk0FkVV0SiFm6XGYauogXbh0mLxMMwc-2J5Nv7zIJ= 5gyHVa1Zdg3yIGG-oA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34179065 34689023 34798941 34808873 34798823 34798786
    34688727 34508613 34068597 33288608 32668651 32649076
    33439079 34179065=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 05, 2023 02:34:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 050234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050234=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-050430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0934 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming/southern
    Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

    Valid 050234Z - 050430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible, mainly across
    northern Colorado near/east of Denver into northeast Colorado
    roughly along/north of I-70.

    DISCUSSION...The most severe-favorable environment remains focused
    near the Front Range/I-25 corridor generally near Denver, where some
    stronger storms persist along/north of I-70. A few of these storms
    remain potentially capable of severe hail and/or wind gusts over the
    next couple of hours. These eastward persistence into/across the
    adjacent plains is a bit uncertain given what appears to be a more
    convectively hostile thermodynamic environment with eastward extent.

    It is otherwise perhaps worth noting that some short-term guidance
    such as recent HRRR runs suggest that a secondary round of stronger
    convection could materialize late tonight (after midnight local
    time) across northern Colorado/far southeast Wyoming. This would
    probably be related to the approach of the shortwave trough/speed
    max currently over southeast Idaho. Should this development occur,
    residual instability (mostly elevated) and strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer could potentially support hail.

    ..Guyer.. 07/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_RG5b0r-k7dFrKLVBenGGy0U5oH99_nw4xTVqCPWhvgMb7VC0UvEZnTlgJYq2c51IALvom3E= V8xRZ8JrbA5mgytKG4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40710293 39670237 38920315 39440510 40920560 41600477
    41190310 40710293=20


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