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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1424

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 09, 2022 03:03:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 090303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090303=20
    MTZ000-090430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1424
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1003 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

    Areas affected...northeast MT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

    Valid 090303Z - 090430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A swath of severe gusts is expected across northeast MT
    over the next 1-3 hours as a severe squall line moves
    east-northeast. Gusts ranging from 60-70 mph will be common, peak
    gusts 75-90 mph are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an intense squall line over
    north-central MT (Blaine County south to Petroleum County) moving east-northeast at 40-45 kt. 10-km CAPPI reflectivity shows several
    large and intense embedded updrafts embedded within the convective
    line. Surface conditions ahead of the squall line are very warm
    with mid-upper 80s temperatures and mid 60s dewpoints near Glasgow.=20
    The 00z Glasgow raob showed around an 8 deg C/km lapse rate from the
    surface through 500 mb. Given the squall line continues to
    encounter an increasingly moist low-level airmass with eastward
    extent, the existing lapse rate profile, and forward motion of the
    convective system, it seems plausible widespread severe gusts may
    result over the next couple of hours downstream of a developing
    bowing structure within the line. Peak gusts 75-90 mph are
    possible, especially in the vicinity of the larger cores near the
    bowing apex.

    ..Smith.. 07/09/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gr1V5qBolcVYSl1tC9UzLFPs7Fpu3b4t_FapH_2MKL-RgKmj4CMLpi68O01xHezZ9GOyaGpB= gD0Pjdp6LrTK5cRAlM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48300836 48880703 48810617 48410580 48000598 47500804
    47920804 48300836=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 04, 2023 23:14:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 042314
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042314=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-050045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1424
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0614 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southeast Wyoming...southern
    Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

    Valid 042314Z - 050045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk continues initially across southeast Colorado
    early this evening, with severe-weather potential expected to
    increase across the northern Colorado mountains toward the
    foothills/urban corridor, as well as far southeast Wyoming, through early/mid-evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444 continues until 11
    pm MDT.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/occasionally severe storms will continue across
    the southeast Colorado Plains into this evening, with such storms
    currently scattered in a general corridor from Colorado Springs to
    La Junta/Lamar as of 5pm MDT. These storms will remain capable of
    localized bouts of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts as they
    progress through the instability axis, although storm organization
    will likely remain a bit more limited with southward extent (toward
    the NM/OK/KS border vicinity) amid weaker deep-layer wind profiles.

    Otherwise, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have increased over
    the northern Colorado mountains, including near the Medicine Bow
    Mountains and I-80 corridor of far southern Wyoming. These storms
    are being influenced by a mid-level speed max that is readily
    inferred from satellite imagery and sampled by regional WSR-88D VWP
    data. These storms are likely to persist eastward, along with the
    possibility of additional development, and pose an increasing severe
    risk over the next few hours toward the urban areas/I-25 corridor of
    northern Colorado/southeast Wyoming and the nearby plains.

    ..Guyer.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7SBqH-BtZlrJBFmQRiALO55-57hV2y1xQKluh0AIkBBEBjdQ7Fc1Q_f57P5iI_L5TSqxfM6nj= NzbpGFvaa8h7cCTygo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41710649 42060462 41150264 39350249 37720206 37040311
    38220481 39150525 40140590 40710645 41710649=20


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