ACUS11 KWNS 082018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082018=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into north-northeast
Colorado and extreme western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082018Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated bouts of large hail or severe gusts may accompany
the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain
isolated, and a WW issuance seems unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multicells/brief transient supercells have attempted to
become established along the lee of the higher terrain along the
central Rockies in southeast WY over the past hour, with some of the
last MRMS MESH frames showing hail approaching the 1 inch range. 20Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest RAP forecast soundings depict
8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE. Modest veering through the troposphere supports 30+ kts of
effective bulk shear, with high-based multicells/transient
supercells expected to increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon given the buoyant but dry boundary layer in place. The
steep low and mid-level lapse rates amid some appreciable shear
suggest that large hail is possible with the stronger storms, though
severe gusts are also possible. However, forecast soundings show the
majority of CAPE constrained above 600 mb via tall, skinny
thermodynamic profiles. When also considering weak synoptic forcing,
storm coverage should remain relatively sparse, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/08/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51ofJXM4nhkyd4iUPQM7LDqYrskpp_9SCXwf-WkkY-JIq-z8D6qBUWk423j-RuGm_KhbLyhUb= BnScugR9xsN7evIbBQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39760551 41030563 41390564 41770573 42070574 42270567
42450544 42440485 42290430 41880366 41240337 40370334
39720344 39470363 39260421 39220468 39330506 39760551=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 040626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040625=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-040800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Portions of SD and northern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

Valid 040625Z - 040800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue in the
short term. But, the need for a downstream watch appears more
uncertain than previously expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster that recently moved across parts of
western SD while producing multiple measured severe gusts (60+ mph)
has devolved into two cells in central SD along surging outflow.
Given a fairly dry/well-mixed boundary layer and ample DCAPE present
across much of central/eastern SD, isolated severe wind gusts will
remain possible as this convection continues to spread eastward over
the next couple of hours. Occasional severe hail will also be
possible with the more cellular convection across central/eastern SD
in the low-level warm advection regime, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer
shear supports some supercell potential. The northern extent of any
appreciable severe threat will likely be delineated by a
front/surface boundary which extends east-west across SD. With
recent trends showing weakening of the cluster over western/central
SD, the need for a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears
lower than previously thought. Regardless, observational trends will
continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/04/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6pkcdP6MiJlnIc-n_2uh-ULU3tMJrsXWAP3huy5JUJQcbCgENSlydUcSgnx7plDBd1wDbNKdt= bdr9l3ba9KyXRtL1HM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43730126 44670111 45009960 44829701 43649695 42909832
42500130 43730126=20


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