ACUS11 KWNS 070101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070101=20
MTZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 070101Z - 070300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 445. Severe hail (some and winds should continue into the
evening hours. A brief tornado still cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Numerous multicells/supercells have become established
across central into eastern MT over the past couple of hours. While
the widespread nature of the storms might result in storm mergers
and enough adequate overturning to reduce storm longevity to a
degree, uncontaminated air still bears 8+ C/km low and mid-level
lapse rates. As such, any updrafts that can mature may still support
a large hail threat, including brief bouts of 2+ inch hail given
both the aforementioned lapse rates and 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear present (especially in central into northeast MT). Given the
steep low-level lapse rates/dry boundary layer, severe gusts are
also possible. In addition any supercell structure that can
favorably traverse an outflow boundary may also produce a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wFVoUa7kTwofUHx2xn_flLdkctD_WEk9TwkbbxQI1KiCnFGuOh2rUrNTNoW5QNvNBMI6WieU= aZk-AR6-keOnBj7Fo0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46541159 47961171 48431145 48681074 48990934 49000652
48760522 48310419 47680419 46370529 45680592 45290637
45190695 45400833 45951002 46541159=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 032007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032007=20
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-032200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern MN and northwestern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032007Z - 032200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across
portions of eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed along a cold front stretching
across eastern Minnesota. Ahead of the front, mixing has driven
temperatures to near 90 F with dewpoints in the mid 60s F, yielding
MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg. Given the linear forcing from the
cold front and weak low-level and deep-layer shear, upscale growth
into a loosely organized QLCS is expected, and consolidating cold
pools may produce a wind damage threat. The northern portion of the
line will soon move over Lake Superior, and there is some
uncertainty as to how much the cooler air over the lake will weaken
the line. The remainder of the line is expected to progress eastward
with time and weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-SjHvWiq7AVQsrCNrr9DfpTUlVl701IU_RWOUXaSdwlHd9jy_5twPpaDCFLAAKDnjEBfQbQuf= VRcr1dX51WbiECkCHs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 47749017 46979024 45989035 44929082 44079184 43839254
43909320 44369403 44629416 44939440 45419441 45909381
46259339 47529223 48269155 48289053 47749017=20


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