ACUS11 KWNS 062253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062253=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 062253Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 445. Supercells capable of producing severe winds and large
hail should persist into the early evening hours. A brief tornado
also is possible with the more robust, long-lasting supercell
structures.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to develop or persist
across portions of central into eastern Montana, with MRMS mosaic
MESH data suggesting that several supercells have a history of
producing 1.5-3.0 inch hail for the last couple of hours. These
storms are thriving in an environment characterized by 8+ C/km
tropospheric lapse rates amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
(driven by strong 850-500 mb veering with height). Severe hail and
wind should continue to accompany the more intense supercell
structures through the evening hours, especially across northeast
MT, where greater storm coverage is expected. Backed low-level flow
may also encourage some transient periods of low-level rotation with
the longest lived storms. A brief tornado was reported earlier
across central MT and an additional brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!53sWiz7HjrY5fIdj0tlSUb06eQ1UBEuTXxKJI0CTkR-0Gn2n5P2Pi7UiChtOjEEAdWiqjZ_5G= o_lT9zi-vEt0Wo2uwE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 48221313 48931061 48970800 49000506 48670417 47950403
47160474 45860603 45230687 44970777 45060897 45201023
45441133 45841211 46141256 47211305 48221313=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031919=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Western/central North Carolina and northern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031919Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon.
The eastern extent of the threat will depend on further
destabilization in central North Carolina. A watch is possible, but
uncertainty remains medium to high.

DISCUSSION...With an MCV moving through western/central North
Carolina earlier today, subsidence is evident on visible satellite.
However, a moist airmass remains up against the southern
Appalachians and storms have initiated in western North Carolina
within the last hour and a half. The airmass ahead of the current
convection clearly has some capping present, but destabilization
will continue into the afternoon as temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s/low 90s F (warmer than RAP forecast temperatures).
Modest mid-level winds are present in parts of northern North
Carolina and drop off fairly rapidly in to South Carolina per
regional VAD winds. A few strong to severe storms capable of
damaging winds are possible, but the timing and eastern extent of
the threat away from the terrain is uncertain. Convective trends
will be monitored through the afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BPmFl_3xOnZW3UeQRSdVM1-OEiocDR8BPeqYP_8rhl0eS-AIaUNjt7JK96BgllegH-HYoHW7= VPKScoIMlSJOcvVA0I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34867863 34517904 34317980 34668124 35318241 35658230
35948199 36028167 35938138 35928058 36008006 36137901
36327810 36137755 35687785 34867863=20


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