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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1399

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 06, 2022 19:43:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 061943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061942=20
    MTZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

    Areas affected...southwestern through central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 061942Z - 062215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development is
    underway. A more substantive increase in storms, including isolated supercells, appears possible as early as 4-6 PM MDT, which may
    require the issuance of a severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...On the northwestern periphery of large-scale mid-level
    ridging within the westerlies, a low amplitude short wave
    perturbation is in the process of migrating north of the Great Basin
    toward the northern Rockies. Associated downstream forcing for
    ascent is spreading across the mountains of western Montana, and may
    be contributing to ongoing isolated thunderstorm initiation off the
    higher terrain east-southeast of Great Falls and north of the
    Yellowstone vicinity. Otherwise, latest objective analysis suggests
    that considerable inhibition remains for destabilizing mixed-layer
    parcels.

    During the next few hours, the inhibition will likely continue to
    weaken in the presence of continued weak large-scale ascent and
    further boundary-layer warming. As this occurs, a corresponding
    increase in thunderstorm development seems probable. Beneath 30-40
    kt southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is
    sufficiently strong to support supercells, in the presence of
    thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates
    and mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be
    accompanied by the risk for large hail, locally strong surface gusts
    and perhaps some potential for a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 07/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2dwbZg96oklqdbGiQtOnY-6krb9sXpEbm5S4HihIDmEuoQcgy_tmOppMVPQSv085lHJG6yoc= _HeGOCSh7vDFEVkR0g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 45701240 46191308 47511219 48211000 47160808 45390925
    45661079 45701240=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 03, 2023 03:58:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 030358
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030357=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-030530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast KY into western VA and southern WV

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

    Valid 030357Z - 030530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some potential for isolated damaging wind may linger into
    the overnight hours, but the threat is expected to become
    increasingly marginal with time.

    DISCUSSION...At 0345 UTC, a small bowing storm cluster is ongoing
    south of Jackson, KY, with another weakening cluster moving into
    southern WV. Moderate west-southwesterly deep-layer flow (as noted
    on the KJKL VWP) will continue to support modestly organized
    convection in the short term, with an attendant threat of localized
    damaging gusts. However, increasing MLCINH with time and eastward
    extent should generally result in a gradual weakening trend
    overnight as storms attempt to cross the higher terrain. While some
    threat for isolated damaging wind may linger into the overnight
    hours, the remaining threat is expected to become increasingly
    marginal, and additional watch issuance is not expected when WW 436
    expires at 04 UTC.

    ..Dean.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9btpIvx6jfDESJsTxZmdJ4_atvbnAauAZjb7shfEpB1ZcGt6NSd6-FzK7pSm5BMK5IiF9ohjO= P29plRzfOgQXXi2VjQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 37268383 37318295 37808179 38238135 38508113 38508073
    38248016 37718052 37128098 36848154 36708234 36658318
    36778420 37268383=20


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