ACUS11 KWNS 061806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061806=20
COZ000-WYZ000-062100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022
Areas affected...the Colorado...Wyoming Front Range vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 061806Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered vigorous thunderstorm development, including a
couple of supercells posing a risk for mostly marginally severe hail
and locally strong wind gusts, may increasingly impact areas to the
east of the Front Range, from the Greater Denver area to Cheyenne,
by 2-4 PM MDT. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Although the mid-level environment across the Front
Range vicinity appears relatively warm with weak lapse rates,
seasonably high moisture content is present, and low-level lapse
rates are in the process of steepening with boundary-layer warming
and mixing. With additional insolation during the next few hours,
it appears mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg, and
near surface flow may transition to an increasing upslope component
across the northern slopes of the Palmer Divide and Front Range
vicinity.
Scattered thunderstorm development is already gradually in the
process of initiating along the higher terrain. As a weak short
wave impulse, within the monsoonal regime emanating from the lower
latitude eastern Pacific, pivots across and northeast of the Front
Range, a more substantive intensification of thunderstorms may
commence by 20-22Z. Beneath 20-40 kt southwesterly flow in the
500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear will become increasingly
conducive to supercells as near-surface winds trend
easterly/northeasterly, with strongest storms accompanied by a risk
for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts while gradually
propagating off the higher terrain.
..Kerr/Grams.. 07/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!85qIwfL6aDaVjvbUxbVr_pxFdtMwjPbdt9Un4_7YuNXnKUymevelUroGuPo8g0af7TkQ__z1J= CU0t8koo4wXZBP7tiU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39570511 40180522 40650540 41010532 41550510 41300449
40280428 39630366 39090394 39570511=20
=3D =3D =3D
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