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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1395

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 06, 2022 16:15:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 061615
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061615=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-061815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of mid/upper Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 061615Z - 061815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the
    mid/upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. An MCV should foster scattered
    storms capable of wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...The remnant MCV from yesterdays severe MCS is currently
    moving through the southern Great Lakes region per water vapor
    imagery. Convection ahead of this feature has deepened over the past
    hour in western/central Ohio and this trend should continue this
    afternoon. The airmass ahead of this activity is quite moist and
    temperature range from the low 80s F in southern Ohio to around 90 F
    in southern Indiana. Enhanced wind fields with the MCV will promote
    25-35 kts of effective shear. Scattered storms should eventually
    develop this afternoon with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts.
    The primary uncertainty is how convection will evolve. The activity
    in Ohio will likely intensify as it ingest more buoyant air through
    time. There is also additional development possible along the
    outflow boundary in southern Indiana. It is likely that parts of the
    mid/upper Ohio Valley region will need a severe thunderstorm watch
    this within the next hour or two.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7oRJvWSBnzqHjZimONbM_CJFxuVgzrRKXCdu15pGHxQP_crLF_zVYKRcnugMxLgo98RUaR-G5= 89lH08knl3bMqd8mbs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 39348664 40148511 40318447 39558192 39148132 38648112
    38118164 37978253 38398503 38898630 39348664=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 23:35:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 022335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022334=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...Extreme northeast AR into western/middle TN and
    southwest KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...431...

    Valid 022334Z - 030100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430, 431
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail continues
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has thus far struggled to attain severe
    intensity across parts of western/middle TN into southwest KY,
    potentially due in part to being in between the more strongly forced
    regime to the north, and the somewhat more moist regime to the
    south. Outflow is now approaching from both the north and south
    across the region, but a corridor of relatively undisturbed
    environment remains between these outflows, where MLCAPE in excess
    of 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt continues to be
    conditionally favorable for organized convection.

    A small bowing segment east of Paducah will pose a damaging-wind
    threat across parts of southwest KY this evening. It remains
    possible that one or more clusters could evolve into western/middle
    TN, which would result in an increasing damaging-wind threat
    along/east of the northern outflow, and generally north of the
    outflow approaching from the south.=20

    WW 430 and WW 431 are scheduled to expire at 01 UTC. Local watch
    extension may be needed, depending on short-term trends regarding
    storm intensity and downstream instability.

    ..Dean.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kTj1kvGnU9H4ocqnVumdvewkzvl0LEpWGvq5g-la154FWnlhViPFLlxo7Z1hTFraDt5G_J_A= qowNIi1yinm7hx7HNY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35549038 36598837 37118747 37408640 36998613 36188600
    36028633 35518863 35239017 35549038=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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