ACUS11 KWNS 060420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060420=20
NDZ000-060615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

Valid 060420Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue for a few
more hours across parts of western North Dakota. Wind damage and
hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely to
the east of the ongoing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar at Minot shows a
cluster of strong thunderstorms in far northwestern North Dakota.
Other storms are ongoing further southwest to near the North
Dakota-Montana state line. This convection is located near an axis
of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. The storms will continue to move eastward across the
instability corridor over the next couple of hours. The instability,
combined with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates, will make severe storms possible. Wind damage and hail
will be the primary threats over the next couple of hours. As the
storms move toward the eastern edge of WW 441, the severe threat
should become more isolated.

..Broyles.. 07/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5mjNM9p6GR28S-o0JM7BZQUX2TijIcCjIdrOaYfU8smljcuC5J7n3MAf_ppjt9y1ZmE99BlEW= qITyrnj3jEsoR2I3XQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON 46910168 47590103 48170090 48570143 48670197 48680230
48540257 48260292 47860341 47470377 47220392 46940397
46690395 46550380 46440332 46400297 46480238 46910168=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022242=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Central/eastern KY into extreme southern
OH...western WV...extreme western VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...436...

Valid 022242Z - 030015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431, 436
continues.

SUMMARY...Swaths of damaging wind will be possible this evening as
storm clusters move eastward.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster evolved this afternoon across
eastern KY and is currently passing near/north of Jackson, KY. In
the short term, MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and moderate
deep-layer southwesterly flow (as noted in the KJKL VWP) will
continue to support the potential for a swath of damaging gusts with
this cluster as it approaches southwest WV and extreme western VA
early this evening.=20

Another storm cluster is moving eastward across central KY, just to
the east/southeast of Louisville. The bulk of this cluster is moving
north of the outflow from the leading bowing segment across eastern
KY, which is likely limiting storm intensity and organization to
some extent. However, recent vigorous storm development has been
noted in closer proximity to the outflow. The initial discrete cells
in this area could pose an isolated hail threat, but with time, the
central KY cluster may tend to propagate southeastward into the
greater buoyancy, or else a new cluster may evolve out of new
convection. Either of these scenarios could lead to an increasing
damaging-wind threat across southeast KY, where the environment
remains relatively undisturbed early this evening.

..Dean.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FfsILSqtvm6yjQKTvuIQe-8VLWtEPptZEEBCLdlJurDQTlvZJIdSpoZB6AgfvoHHI13Dvzws= 9CwFmnViIx1YDm95Ag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 36988473 37178621 37678633 37858619 37998606 38328526
38168483 37988420 37998355 38748301 38808215 38768175
38598142 38358143 37888170 37378192 37118233 37068268
37028289 37028325 36988358 36968403 36988473=20


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