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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1383

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 21:34:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 052134
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052134=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-052330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1383
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Tennessee...extreme
    southern Virginia...western into central North Carolina...far
    northern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052134Z - 052330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
    storm cores embedded within a southward moving squall line. The
    overall severe wind threat is expected to remain isolated through
    the remainder of the evening and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A modestly organized MCS has materialized over the past
    couple of hours across portions of the central Appalachians into the
    Carolina Piedmont, where a couple of damaging gusts have recently
    been reported. Deep-layer tropospheric flow/shear remain weak across
    much of the eastern U.S., with squall line organization driven
    predominantly by cold pool mergers in a moderately unstable
    environment. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of the MCS/squall
    line, driven primarily by 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such,
    adequate evaporative cooling within the boundary layer should
    support an isolated damaging gust threat through the remainder of
    the afternoon with the stronger storm cores.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6MLzftLH6dP7jr6KrYVH7GLmJ0ERu9apnRqwVJXxa9kh0NE94SlRGSTJKtX5tzbyw3izEkqJw= 96lnG3RqPQvLvXUPrg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
    JKL...

    LAT...LON 35728351 36148385 36528413 36708412 36588338 36298234
    36008109 36117967 36477867 36817817 36777765 36657716
    36337709 35967722 35657759 35167847 34897909 34637973
    34378084 34258177 34248237 34438278 34888313 35728351=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 15:16:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 021516
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021516=20
    TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1383
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...northeast MS...northern/north-central AL...southern
    Middle and eastern TN...far northwest GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 021516Z - 021645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
    gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Clusters/bands of
    storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and hail.

    DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning
    across parts of northern MS. This activity is expected to gradually
    increase in coverage as convection spreads east/northeast through
    midday. Mostly clear skies downstream from current convection is
    allowing for rapid warming, with temperatures already in the 80s.
    Surface dewpoints mostly in the low/mid 70s beneath modest midlevel
    lapse rates (near 7 C/km) are aiding in moderate destabilization,
    with MLCAPE values around 2500-3500 J/kg expected to develop
    eastward across the MCD area by early afternoon. Vertical shear
    decreases with southward extent over the region, but effective shear
    magnitudes around 25-35 kt will be more than sufficient for
    organized bands/clusters of storms. Steepening low-level lapse rates
    and high PW values amid strong instability will support damaging
    wind potential. Additionally, 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 3-6
    km layer, coupled with large instability/steep midlevel lapse rates
    suggest at least an isolated large hail threat will accompany more
    intense semi-discrete convection. A severe thunderstorm watch will
    likely be needed for portions of the area in the next 1-2 hours.
    Additionally, a small southward expansion of the Slight risk area
    will be included with the 1630z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wSIlnSUAmuwbtnYOJH-TLmFRoY3cdyQW9VgliE7M1AyarH6Fsxru3UwFcRWVUqGmSW0eqcBG= 4iYa7AyyuZR1KyEFIs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33548645 33228742 33148865 33318963 33548993 33929001
    34248987 34728898 35058820 36008575 36148486 36058449
    35928427 35578417 35288428 34768468 34338504 33548645=20


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