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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 20:32:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 052032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052032=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-052230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and
    northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 052032Z - 052230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of northern Iowa into southern
    Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sufficient shear and substantial
    buoyancy will promote storms capable of damaging winds and large
    hail.

    DISCUSSION...Moisture has pooled along a stationary boundary across
    parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F
    have allowed substantial buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop
    along and south of the boundary. Flow aloft remains strong enough
    for effective shear value of 35-45 kts. Given this environment,
    organized storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are
    possible. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus towers
    in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with greater agitation
    also noted in northern Iowa. Guidance has been relatively consistent
    with storms firing along the boundary. in terms of timing,
    observations would suggest that storms are most likely within the
    next 1-2 hours in Wisconsin/Illinois. However, additional
    development is possible into northern Iowa ahead of the intense MCS
    now in southeast South Dakota. Even without frontal development in
    Iowa, the MCS is likely to persist and impact the region. These
    areas will likely need a watch this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xKSKYVd_pdmq8dO9O6bCYmCwYhWAyf5Adzf7s3MlO8bJGjvNd_bTEmZgVHtZxPIe5U6hP2fp= 3uYdQ92XQUCwR4dt_s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42409200 42409288 42499390 42769473 43549442 43669297
    43559096 42858829 42058738 41568752 41598853 42179037
    42409200=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 00:58:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 020057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020057=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0757 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern Ohio...far southeastern Indiana...far
    northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020057Z - 020230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are possible this
    evening for southeastern Ohio/northern Kentucky. An additional watch
    is not currently expected this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms in southern Indiana will eventually move into
    southeastern Ohio and northern Kentucky this evening. Modest forcing
    from a shortwave trough in the Mid-Missouri Valley will provide some
    additional cooling aloft. While cooling at the surface will not be
    particularly quick due to the very moist airmass, the overall
    thermodynamic profile is not likely to support widespread
    strong/severe convection. The observed 00Z ILN sounding showed
    capping present in the 850-700 mb layer. Given the lesser degree of organization in the southern Indiana activity over the last hour and
    the less favorable environment into southeast Ohio, an additional
    watch is not currently expected this evening. Locally
    strong/damaging wind gusts may still occur with the strongest
    storms, however.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72nB4YUJWNeMLa2LUwRWdd9hbKO5XLQBtpr6mc_yOHZ3surWIptrD8EYEBrNCx2Ko_SzwRf4q= L1yggK5gbFvbIxret8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38828537 39308524 39628471 39608419 39198346 38848325
    38428334 38138368 38068408 38188504 38448541 38828537=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 01:07:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 020107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020107 COR
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0807 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Southwestern Ohio...far southeastern Indiana...far
    northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020107Z - 020230Z

    CORRECTED FOR LOCATION REFERENCE

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are possible this
    evening for southwestern Ohio/northern Kentucky. An additional watch
    is not currently expected this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms in southern Indiana will eventually move into
    southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky this evening. Modest forcing
    from a shortwave trough in the Mid-Missouri Valley will provide some
    additional cooling aloft. While cooling at the surface will not be
    particularly quick due to the very moist airmass, the overall
    thermodynamic profile is not likely to support widespread
    strong/severe convection. The observed 00Z ILN sounding showed
    capping present in the 850-700 mb layer. Given the lesser degree of organization in the southern Indiana activity over the last hour and
    the less favorable environment into southwestern Ohio, an additional
    watch is not currently expected this evening. Locally
    strong/damaging wind gusts may still occur with the strongest
    storms, however.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8iohbIreu0DJMgxhqPtSqcqapkfRCk3Ow-KttX2Orfxn-uJSp_wqen9sBS4GnfGVFFEjkq_rr= wQXuPISaMpXrF1X4wI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38828537 39308524 39628471 39608419 39198346 38848325
    38428334 38138368 38068408 38188504 38448541 38828537=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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