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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1377

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 17:15:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 051715
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051715=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-051915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1377
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...Far southwestern Ohio...Eastern Kentucky into
    southwestern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 051715Z - 051915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms in eastern Kentucky into southwest Virginia will
    continue to move into a increasingly buoyant, but decreasingly
    sheared, airmass this afternoon. Wind damage will be possible with
    water-loaded downdrafts. A watch is possible should convective
    trends in cold-pool organization warrant.

    DISCUSSION...Outflow from an MCS that moved through Ohio overnight
    yesterday continues to push southward into the southern Appalachians
    region. A very moist airmass (70+ F dewpoints) has warmed into the
    low 90s in eastern Kentucky with slightly lower temperatures to the
    east. With time, continued heating should support an increase in
    damaging wind potential. A secondary outflow push is also evident on
    regional MRMS radar. This could produce an increase in storm
    coverage/intensity as it interacts with storms farther to the south.
    However, overall organization is not expected to be high given the
    southward movement away from greater deep-layer shear. A watch is
    possible should an area of greater cold-pool organization develop
    this afternoon. Trends will be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-n9UsxE593fgvbexHXaxQwmW1QpstpVq0vIkb4Zm65eaWfk8QHVYAoJqa7Kvo45t9tQwHfhQF= i_4vYIDGVm3971l4Iw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 36608158 37228439 37518490 37738520 38498512 39308480
    39468436 39298400 38798327 38208185 38128092 38198017
    38127976 37837949 37517945 37048018 36648152 36608158=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 20:35:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 012035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012035=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-012230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1377
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern/central IL into
    southern/central IN and western/central KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

    Valid 012035Z - 012230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and large hail threat will continue across
    portions of southern Illinois into western Kentucky and southwest
    Indiana the next few hours. An increasing severe risk is expected to
    develop late this afternoon into this evening downstream from WW 427
    and a new watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Intense, severe-warned cells are ongoing across
    southern IL and parts of western KY. MRMS MESH has indicated hail
    between 1-2 inch in diameter is possible with these storms as they
    track generally eastward across a moderate unstable airmass.
    Effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt are noted in objective
    guidance and regional VWP data. Over the past 30 minutes or so, more
    discrete cells over southern IL appear to be trying to organize into
    more of a forward propagating cluster. Damaging wind potential will
    increase with any upscale development with this activity.=20

    Further north and east of WW 427 across east-central IL into parts
    of central/southern IN and west-central KY, airmass recovery after
    morning convection appears to be well underway. Low-level inhibition
    has most eroded as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s
    with low/mid 70s dewpoints. The gradient of stronger instability is
    oriented across this area, and favorable shear is expected to
    persist as a midlevel shortwave impulse continues to eject across MO
    and into IL this evening. This should support a continued severe
    thunderstorm risk into this evening, and a downstream severe
    thunderstorm watch is likely.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vhH0FzpEC8aukWTw3tD5JwlIEtjOb2_aqnVXXRB3455su3QNRyq_32qCBCh4NKQlTwYhHl2_= 4z4_ypLKCmluiYnA0E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37218688 37548844 37818938 38038954 38108957 38948946
    39468913 39798851 39648686 39308556 39128522 38918508
    38598507 38128521 37868530 37358574 37178637 37218688=20


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