ACUS11 KWNS 050602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050602=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-050730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Illinois...southwestern Lower Michigan...northern into central Indiana...extreme northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432...434...

Valid 050602Z - 050730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432, 434
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 432 and 434. Damaging gusts are the primary threat,
particularly with any bowing line segments.

DISCUSSION...An MCS has materialized across the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity over the last couple of hours, where a couple of
severe gusts have been reported. Recently, a somewhat more prominent
bow-echo signature has developed within the MCS near the Chicago
metropolitan area per last few scans of the KLOT velocity data. This
portion of the MCS is traversing a buoyancy gradient characterized
by 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, and is oriented roughly normal to the 40+ kt
effective bulk shear vectors. As such, damaging to potentially
severe gusts may continue to accompany this bowing structure for at
least a couple more hours, though a damaging gust or two remains
possible with the entire MCS.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ug8tUJPYC373x1BaPat78Eec0QgUpnFZ7tZdDWNdU5XyFpEOnp1CFcsWUk-_tocab_LYQR0t= pIDjd_kSlJHUyUa1q8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 42188875 42138726 42318597 42588509 42598466 42318441
41718424 41268422 40848456 40668493 40548555 40518623
40578686 40818733 41198794 41488835 42188875=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 011737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011737=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...northern/central Virginia into portions of Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011737Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusts
and hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface
trough near the higher terrain of west-central VA. Low to mid 70s
surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid
modest midlevel lapse rates. Continued heating will result in
steepening low-level lapse rates the next few hours. Vertical shear
is expected to remain weak, at or below 20 kt 0-6 km effective bulk
shear. This will limit longevity/organization of strong updrafts.
Nevertheless, high PW values and boundary-layer mixing to around 1
km could support sporadic downbursts. While midlevel lapse rates and
3-6 km flow will remain weak, large instability from 700-300 mb and
somewhat elongated hodographs could support a few instances of
near-1 inch hail. The overall threat is expected to remain marginal,
and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-VAdNOTwjJOQ6KZq3XD-7F3hfR93OlK5_UUngxOYK8lfDgyXgTZdRM_WMNSL75TfuhzyzNd7= SwlQw-m237wHkSlkEs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38217931 39267845 39577750 39427670 38947621 38407624
37787653 37467709 37307776 37167879 37377929 37817942
38217931=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)