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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1361

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 22:40:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 042240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042240=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-050015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1361
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...portions of east-central Illinois into west-central
    Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042240Z - 050015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany ongoing
    storms in east-central Illinois over the next couple of hours if the
    storms can sustain themselves. Conditions are being monitored for
    the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch if it becomes
    apparent that storms will last with any vigor for at least a few
    more hours.

    DISCUSSION...A multicellular complex of storms (with some cells
    exhibiting transient, outflow-dominant supercell characteristics)
    have produced strong to marginally severe wind gusts over the past
    couple of hours. MRMS mosaic radar data shows 30-50 dBZ echo top
    trends remaining fairly constant over the past couple of hours, with
    some slight weakening in the past 10-20 minutes. While deep-layer
    ascent along the IL/IN border is weak, strong surface heating ahead
    of the storms has promoted surface temperatures to rise to near 90
    F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer comprising 8 C/km 0-3 km
    lapse rates. However, a favorable parameter space of overlapping
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear exist only a few
    counties ahead of the storms, raising questions regarding how long
    the storms (and severe potential) will last. Conditions are being
    monitored for the need of a potential watch should the storms take
    advantage of the steeper low-level lapse rates over the more limited
    CAPE/shear parameter space to support a sustained cold pool and
    associated damaging gust threat.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hLDykokC54yQebpdQsCzs2qFSqEPcJZDCUXivuDrRj7JEL8hGgI1mBZ4PCSLmyiTEqgiOzgR= iKNvG-50wMWd5zzyO0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39678831 39958853 40158855 40448856 40678847 40788830
    40788792 40688762 40468725 40228680 39918659 39608669
    39468692 39348725 39428770 39678831=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 30, 2023 22:38:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 302238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302237=20
    KSZ000-010000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1361
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0537 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 302237Z - 010000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase across parts of southwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening, and a watch issuance is
    likely.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway across parts
    of southwestern Kansas this afternoon -- where some increase in
    large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
    Rockies is overspreading a moist/unstable air mass. While low-level
    flow is quite weak, a belt of strengthening midlevel southwesterlies
    will contribute to 40-50 kt of effective shear. This wind profile,
    coupled with moderate surface-based instability, will support a few semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and locally
    damaging gusts. With time, an additional cluster of severe storms
    will approach the area from southeastern CO, posing a risk of severe
    winds as well. Current thinking is that a watch will be needed to
    cover both rounds of convection this afternoon/evening.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Cb4XAsN4_eX33vuQeLupkN4Mk6o4HEBpvPcKCA2ssemnSa8203m1X19HoNkyRxOFvDcGYGZL= 5qzduI5Z0_SjY48P6U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37060050 37030141 37080189 37330198 37800200 38090187
    38360139 38710067 39000014 39059963 38969924 38569913
    37999909 37519917 37269962 37060050=20


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