ACUS11 KWNS 040536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040535=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-040630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 040535Z - 040630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A well-organized/bowing band of storms moving eastward
across central/southern South Dakota will require new WW issuance,
to cover ongoing/future severe potential.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong to severe storms is currently crossing central/south-central South Dakota, where a moist/moderately
unstable environment persists.

Downstream from the convection, a zone of up to 2500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE is indicated by RAP-based objective analyses.=20
This, combined with 40 to 50 kt southerly low-level jet -- and
associated warm advection/ascent -- suggests likelihood that storms
will remain well-organized over the next few hours. Given potential
for damaging wind gusts, as well as possible instances of marginally
severe hail, a new WW will be coordinated shortly.

..Goss/Edwards.. 07/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!___4RU-e69BgQXVuLKWuQpelqe1GNFkz-ThT_559iO8rCIEb0amy_qj3qEw8aO-a-ZXlKX2v4= 2hBNoVr4k_CbmCioz0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43170098 44370045 45439823 45449694 42689699 42609835
42789928 43170098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 040540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040540 COR
SDZ000-NEZ000-040630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 040540Z - 040630Z

CORRECTED HEADLINE

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A well-organized/bowing band of storms moving eastward
across central/southern South Dakota will require new WW issuance,
to cover ongoing/future severe potential.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong to severe storms is currently crossing central/south-central South Dakota, where a moist/moderately
unstable environment persists.

Downstream from the convection, a zone of up to 2500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE is indicated by RAP-based objective analyses.=20
This, combined with 40 to 50 kt southerly low-level jet -- and
associated warm advection/ascent -- suggests likelihood that storms
will remain well-organized over the next few hours. Given potential
for damaging wind gusts, as well as possible instances of marginally
severe hail, a new WW will be coordinated shortly.

..Goss/Edwards.. 07/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PW1xXi01fqy6oBpNM6JA1x3wxx8Nhtwzpku6_HwqfKhBy_zLCIt-SQ5NVF7Y_4nokE6uRmCR= GB-1xyuUvvDdS4rjM8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43170098 44370045 45439823 45449694 42689699 42609835
42789928 43170098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 301225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301224=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern IA...northern MO...and far
west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301224Z - 301400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm cluster may pose some threat for
severe/damaging winds and hail this morning as it moves eastward.
The need for a watch remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms which have persisted across southern NE
earlier this morning have consolidated and recently strengthened
into a small bowing cluster along the MO/IA border. Two measured
severe wind gusts to 59 and 66 mph have been recorded in southern IA
with this convection. The airmass downstream is not particularly
unstable, as it lies to the north of a weak surface front and
convectively reinforced outflow boundary from prior convection.
Still, latest mesoanalysis suggests around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is present downstream across
northern MO, southern IA, and west-central IL. This may be
sufficient to maintain the current cluster's intensity for a few
more hours as it moves eastward along the MO/IA border. Occasional severe/damaging winds should remain the primary severe threat, but
some hail may also occur. Given the small size of the cluster and
potential for it to weaken as it eventually moves eastward into a
less unstable airmass across IL, the need for a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains uncertain. However, trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0ltWNBaCiZb3gYrvDwKYF9v_fi3vmW8AlqVNiC9GqYT-T4h4j3AuHs9N-HZwsX8Qe_BM_owV= 1-nc35eCQB-AnuZ4Gw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40289411 40669406 41079409 41309313 41299138 41229082
41079041 40589025 40129046 39989113 40069240 40289411=20


=3D =3D =3D
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