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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1347

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 03, 2022 22:59:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 032259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032259=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-040100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

    Areas affected...Western and Central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

    Valid 032259Z - 040100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for much of the
    evening across parts of western and central South Dakota. Large hail
    and wind damage will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Rapid
    City shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms centered just
    to the east of the Black Hills. The storms are located along the
    southern edge of a pocket of strong instability, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough evident on
    water vapor imagery, will move northeastward through northern
    Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. This will provide the lift needed
    to maintain convective development for much of the evening. In
    addition, the Rapid City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
    35 knot range, with veering winds with height in the lowest 2
    kilometers. The deep-layer shear is probably a bit stronger eastward
    across south-central South Dakota, along the southern edge of the
    stronger mid-level flow. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with
    mid-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, will be favorable for
    supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible within
    the stronger downdrafts.

    ..Broyles.. 07/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9F18hvM54gu8zmBvC1tIgvfNFMrtcXOant5AFuBHvWqQvL5u9b2sZQXnMXLI5YK7TTvuuV089= Fes1JYUfZW7toWaLME$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43159917 43559889 44249936 44690030 44820128 44800202
    44600283 44490309 44210340 43890332 43580316 43340292
    43100265 42930185 42880032 42929961 43159917=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 23:49:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 292349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292349=20
    NEZ000-300115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0649 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292349Z - 300115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may be materializing east of Tornado
    Watch 419 as an MCS is organizing in extreme western NE. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the next hour or so if the MCS
    continues to intensify.

    DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells across eastern WY have
    recently aggregated into a loosely organized MCS across the NE
    Panhandle. 7+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates precede this newly
    developed MCS, and are overspreading surface dewpoints in the mid to
    upper 50s, yielding over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. The buoyancy
    coincides with well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, derived
    primarily from elongated, nearly straight hodographs (based on RAP
    forecast soundings). While the aforementioned CAPE/deep-shear
    parameter space would favor continued MCS organization and
    intensification, low-level shear is relatively weak, raising
    questions regarding how prolific the accompanying severe wind threat
    will become. Nonetheless, severe gusts could become common enough to
    warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, which may be needed in
    the next few hours pending continued MCS intensification.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6SzozwsPJWVp0x2y8WeEbDmKCin0g-btMvyZErfer8MPX-eJuueqWNG3hWJ6MCXs3ATXqej85= qtP5PU24Z_VmnkLIJg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42950278 42920145 42620035 42059979 41539966 41310007
    41160097 41150178 41180217 41270255 42950278=20


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