ACUS11 KWNS 031821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031820=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-032045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Western and Central North Carolina...Upstate South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031820Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the mountains of western NC
will spread east-southeastward into the Piedmont region. The
stronger cells will produce brief gusty/damaging winds. A watch is
not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery show increasing
thunderstorms over the mountains of western NC. This activity is
expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as strong
heating and dewpoints in around 70F yield MLCAPE values of ~2000
J/kg. Low-level lapse rates will be rather steep today as
temperatures ahead of the convection rise into the 90s. However,
mid-level lapse rates are weak, and winds through the cloud-bearing
layer are generally below 20 knots. Isolated cells across the
Piedmont region will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds
this afternoon, but the risk of a more organized severe threat
appears limited.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7zY3tMB-bOMl_ByMyuxXkxRqJofp0s7hrCNU926sEAce0AkKL-h_N7bO7fA7EJnppkkb5TORk= _Yok5-BFHzBqPHFQlk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35188265 36228110 36527980 36087945 35587996 35018092
34678216 34618277 34828308 35188265=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 291741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291741=20
INZ000-ILZ000-291945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 291741Z - 291945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...It is possible that an initially well-organized convective
system may undergo substantive weakening within the next hour or
two, but potential for strong to severe surface gusts could continue
across and east of the Illinois/Indiana state border. A new severe
weather watch may be needed east of WW 415.

DISCUSSION...A well organized mesoscale convective system, with an
MCV and strong rear inflow evident in radar imagery, has generally
maintained considerable intensity across and east of the Mississippi
River, with gusts at a number of observing sites approaching or
exceeding 50 kts. Activity is propagating eastward at 50-55 kt and,
based on objective analysis, easterly near-surface inflow may
rapidly begin to become less unstable, at least near its current
apex which will progress across the remainder of east central
Illinois, toward the Indianapolis area, through 19-20Z.=20=20

It remains somewhat unclear how this will impact the subsequent
convective evolution. However, a corridor of stronger
destabilization through northeastern Illinois may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development northeast through north of the MCV, with
additional strong thunderstorm development possibly becoming focused
along an outflow boundary intersection across southern Illinois into
the lower Ohio Valley.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7EVkU8y1Z8jy_2IPzFfb7e93pdn0cP8vVW9tPTB3t2JFFa0n7xarMSK1qi3ZDWhVbJbj9Td2R= jSB9dUAexBU1YygV_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41348950 42348766 40988638 39268669 38608760 37738887
38758950 40478860 41348950=20


=3D =3D =3D
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