ACUS11 KWNS 031724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031724=20
SDZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Southeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031724Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for localized hail and damaging wind gusts may
persist through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An isolated strong thunderstorm has recently evolved
along the southern periphery of an elevated storm cluster that
developed overnight and moved eastward across SD. It appears that
this new cell is being sustained along the eastern edge of a
buoyancy gradient, in conjunction with steepening midlevel lapse
rates and favorable low-level moisture. Recent intensification
trends and weakening MLCINH suggest that this storm may be becoming
surface based. Modest midlevel westerly flow is supporting effective
shear for a surface-based storm of 30-40 kt, so evolution into a
supercell appears possible in the short term, with an attendant risk
of hail and locally damaging wind gusts.=20

The longevity of this cell remains somewhat uncertain, with rather
weak large-scale ascent and most short-term guidance struggling to
maintain convection in this area, but the environment is not
prohibitive for sustained convection, and this storm may persist
into the mid afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the threat and
uncertainty regarding storm longevity, watch issuance is considered
unlikely in the short term.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58s5l9N82r7cBC6eQDCAdFeE-RdBddIboqdFqOgIRCNR_YIGoxtlzJzSzIQ71Xt5Bs0ttNXG_= NaGXElfJUijbYs9y10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44079912 44259806 44319759 44249707 43629689 43269705
43189764 43309817 43729912 44079912=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 291713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291712=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...southern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...parts of
western Kentucky into middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...416...

Valid 291712Z - 291915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414, 416
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms probably will be maintained south-southeastward across much of middle Tennessee through 3-4 PM
CDT, with renewed strong to severe storm development possible across
southern Illinois. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to
replace severe thunderstorm watch 414 prior to its scheduled
expiration.

DISCUSSION...Although there has been some fluctuation in cloud tops,
high lightning flash rates and 30-50 kt rear inflow have generally
been maintained with the forward propagating cluster now approaching
the Great Nashville Metropolitan area. With continuing
boundary-layer warming contributing to destabilization and weakening
inhibition ahead of activity, it seems probable that activity will
persist with little change in intensity across much of middle
Tennessee, into the Tennessee/Alabama/northwestern Georgia state
border vicinity through 19-21Z.

Otherwise, weaker convection lingers upstream, aided by warm
advection above the trailing outflow boundary. This extends across
western Kentucky into southern Illinois, where outflow on the
southern flank of an approaching mesoscale convective system may
enhance lift and support intensifying renewed thunderstorm
development within the next few hours. Aided by inflow of air
characterized by large CAPE, this may initially be accompanied by a
risk for large hail.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4y77SJ78aaC7F9ikUHP9DNHpo0JBTaaqz3LWGdng0sg0MmtXP6iUMW1K-c7FOo9TsFCW7oPnI= mwrT1wvMicyUEWQwvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...
LSX...

LAT...LON 36888604 36218555 35678538 35188575 35078636 35208705
36268795 37458879 38098929 38828978 38998821 38278738
36888604=20


=3D =3D =3D
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