ACUS11 KWNS 030626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030626=20
SDZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/north-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422...

Valid 030626Z - 030800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms -- capable of producing brief/local
occurrences of severe-caliber wind gusts and hail up to an inch in
diameter -- will continue over the next few hours. Severe risk
should gradually diminish as the boundary layer further stabilizes.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an arcing band of strong convection
-- around the northern and eastern periphery of an MCV -- crossing
the central third of South Dakota at this time. The storms are
being fueled by 500 to locally 1000 J/kg increasingly elevated CAPE,
within an area of low-level warm advection associated with a 35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet.

As the boundary layer continues to gradually cool, potential for
damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms should likewise
diminish over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile though, wind
gusts near severe levels -- and perhaps marginal hail, may still
occur locally where stronger downdrafts can be generated in the
vicinity of the most robust updrafts.

While the easternmost storms have reached the southeastern corner of
WW 422, a new watch does not appear warranted given limited areal
and temporal risk that may exist just outside the watch. Local
extension of the watch in area and/or time could be implemented
however, prior to the scheduled 03/08Z expiration.

..Goss.. 07/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!77fUDK_chCJXnz8a39lu2RKrgpFBwIEvm8BHmjeBCkv1WTxVD1_J8JGBjqynrMZIvp3b1lz04= vPjE_yyjj9ZmkSAlaw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 45030115 45480151 45460065 45039925 44669894 44019898
43910007 44220040 44720035 45030115=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 291437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291436=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...western and central Kentucky...parts of adjacent
southeastern Illinois...southern Indiana and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 291436Z - 291630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...Some uncertainty lingers, but the ongoing developing
cluster of storms may be maintained and become better organized with
increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts while tending to
propagate south-southeastward through midday. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
or two to the south and perhaps southeast of WW 414.

DISCUSSION...Within modest northwesterly deep-layer mean flow,
stronger convection is currently tending to propagate
south/southwesterly, aided by elevated inflow inflow of seasonably
moist air with large potential instability emanating from the middle Mississippi Valley. On the western flank of the primary evolving
convective system, strengthening surface outflow appears to be in
the process of advancing across and south of the Evansville
IN/Owensboro Ky areas, as southerly near-surface inflow begins to
destabilize ahead of it, across western Kentucky and Tennessee.=20
While warming above both the elevated and developing unstable near
surface inflow may tend to increase inhibition, cold pool
strengthening and associated lift coupled with continuing insolation
may counter this. If vigorous convective development is maintained,
vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms appears sufficiently
strong to support further organization and increasing potential for
damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jHiyxe4CsTvED79-jsrKyyNOwXSQu1J4dj2xTCuLrqQglD4d3pO1JTTPx3VpmFAoCLYtOhIH= GCy0CCM2zdcTIMHfhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON 38128674 37468568 36098544 35908711 37688814 38128674=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)