ACUS11 KWNS 030104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030103=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...North Dakota...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

Valid 030103Z - 030300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
continue across the eastern part of WW 421. A severe threat may also
impact parts of western South Dakota and south-central North Dakota,
where weather watch issuance will need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Bismark, North
Dakota shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms over western
North Dakota. A second area of severe storms has recently developed
in far northeast Wyoming. These two lines may remain organized,
moving eastward into parts of western South Dakota and south-central
North Dakota over the next few hours. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range, along with 40 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear should be
favorable for a severe threat. Supercells should be capable of large
hail, while the faster moving line segments will likely have
wind-damage potential.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CXWALqEXD4jt20_H18mE96u4Q3rcURt1UTjW_zO2AI0nxYx18Z-0wV2tFsb5kU0WXWj4bhkr= 36rqFw1fNI8ZytLfak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45070061 46569998 47209970 47669979 47910002 47990004
48180077 48220166 48150202 47880232 47510276 46780329
46130362 45190404 44550426 44040428 43650421 43450358
43510251 43710167 43990122 44330098 45070061=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 291222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291222=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern IL into western/southern IN and western/central KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

Valid 291222Z - 291315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat continues. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance into parts of western/southern
Indiana and western/central KY.

DISCUSSION...Multiple instances of large hail generally up to golf
ball size have been reported with supercells across eastern IL into
western IN over the past 1-2 hours, with one report of 3+ inch hail.
Some clustering of convection has recently been noted along/near the
IL/IN border as several supercells are beginning to interact with
each other. There is concern that a small cluster may evolve from
these interactions and spread south-southeastward across parts of western/southern IN into western/central KY over the next couple of
hours. This cluster would probably track along the elevated
instability gradient, with access to ample buoyancy to support
surface-based thunderstorms. In addition to the continued threat for
large hail in the short term, the risk for severe/damaging winds
should increase when this small cluster develops in tandem with a
destabilizing boundary layer and steepening low-level lapse rates. A
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of IN/KY is being
considered.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jovXNWOlpuGIDQxPZL-sikjYFBM7tEj-EATFWJ7U8ELfBitXyeqLODPNM2vXCtiRyWUrIx5Q= qtxSwQaALdWGqkD0ns$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 39988828 39028670 37238580 37038734 38778785 39988828=20


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