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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1328

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 20:48:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 022048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022047=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into eastern PA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420...

    Valid 022047Z - 022245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for localized hail and damaging wind will
    likely continue into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has been rather sparse thus far across
    WW 420, though an isolated supercell developed earlier across far
    southeast PA, while additional robust development has been noted
    near the MD/PA border and also north of WW 420 across east-central
    PA. In the short term, the greatest storm coverage and severe threat
    will likely reside from southern PA into northern MD and DE/southern
    NJ, in the vicinity of a weak confluence zone. Occasional supercell
    structures will remain possible, with an attendant threat of hail
    and locally damaging winds. Storm mergers may eventually result in
    some clustering, which would result in a transition to primarily a
    wind damage threat.=20

    Storm coverage across the southern part of WW 420 may remain
    suppressed in the short term, where a cirrus plume continues to
    limit heating/destabilization to some extent, and low-level flow is
    not as confluent as farther north. However, some increase in storm
    coverage remains possible by early evening, as storms may develop
    closer to the higher terrain and eventually spread eastward, with
    some risk of locally damaging wind and isolated hail.

    ..Dean.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-lbs2jg89uQZlZK0XtbKxFajBa0xMGKn46BJf5ANJBltu6xNz15Nj9k11HJshJQsavcDc9Fq5= _XgKLs2R5_dCKsZfMQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38177847 39547798 40307705 40467565 40497496 39697520
    38397573 38107635 38037715 37947828 38177847=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 06:54:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 290654
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290654=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-290830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern CO into southern NE and
    far northern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...411...

    Valid 290654Z - 290830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410, 411
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail up to around 3 inches in diameter and
    severe/damaging winds will remain a threat as thunderstorms spread
    eastward early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A parade of supercells producing large to very large
    hail up to 3.25 inches in diameter is ongoing across northeastern CO
    into far southwestern NE. The leading supercell in Hays/Hitchcock
    Counties in NE is the most intense, and this cell will likely remain
    capable of producing very large hail in the short term. The
    low-level jet feeding into these storms is rather strong, with 1 km
    AGL winds from VWPs at KDDC/KICT showing 50+ kt south-southwesterly
    flow. The airmass downstream of these supercells is also very
    unstable, with 3000+ J/kg of MUCAPE available to support continued
    robust updrafts. West-southwesterly winds strengthen with height at
    mid/upper levels, which is fostering 50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear.
    This very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is
    expected to support a continued severe hail/wind threat over the
    next couple of hours as the supercells move eastward into
    south-central NE and perhaps far north-central KS. There is some
    potential for the leading supercell to grow upscale into a small bow
    with a corresponding increase in the threat for severe/damaging
    winds.

    ..Gleason.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZmbcWfKHIBxJJCBhuIkZ0CmSaOxrm31LkkHFb0-I74ww3Q9_JB2aKlle4lylPXAN4gzzjXz2= zA9gnJIRxBZrgXJRPE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40420423 40730017 40649785 40189768 39969846 39890125
    39900276 40040424 40420423=20


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