ACUS11 KWNS 022026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022025=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Northeast PA into southern New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

Valid 022025Z - 022230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind gusts and hail will
continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been strengthening from
northeast PA into southern New England this afternoon, though
intensification rates have been slow thus far, likely due to weak
midlevel lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. Deep-layer
shear remains favorable for organized convection, and continued
growth and intensification of ongoing updrafts may still result in
the development of a couple marginal supercells and/or organized
clusters, which would pose a risk of locally damaging wind and
isolated hail.=20

To the south of WW 419, strong storms developed earlier across
portions of Long Island, but have since weakened. Gradually building
cumulus noted on visible satellite imagery suggests that isolated
redevelopment is possible near the NYC metro and adjacent portions
of NJ. Any substantial redevelopment in this area would pose an
isolated damaging wind and hail risk as well.

..Dean.. 07/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47L-u3-SUTfKYex6p2cYPi6oTDEhqcqw_Hc0YAp__FJxsVomML-9tBrGMQuGcfBC8mAzvJoDW= Fhly6171Im6Ctt4M7g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 42667098 41997071 41327074 40927155 40787284 40657366
40777395 40957413 41117443 41207474 41327513 41277580
41267603 41757591 42417356 42617205 42667098=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 290501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290501=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 290501Z - 290630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail may continue into the early
morning hours with ongoing supercells. There is some potential for
the severe-gust potential to increase with time.

DISCUSSION...A large and intense supercell is ongoing at 0445 UTC
across extreme northeast CO, with other more recent development
noted near/north of the trailing outflow into a larger part of
northeast CO. In the short term, moderate to strong buoyancy and
favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell
potential, with an attendant threat of very large hail. A short-term
tornado threat also cannot be ruled out with the lead supercell or
with any of the trailing supercells that can remain rooted near the
surface and not be undercut by outflow.=20

The lead supercell has shown an increase in forward speed over the
last hour, and there is some potential for this cell to evolve into
a forward-propagating cluster that could persist for much of the
night. The evolution remains uncertain, however, due to the likely
somewhat elevated nature of any overnight cluster, and the
potentially negative impact of very warm temperatures at the base of
the EML. If an organized cluster can persist and propagate eastward,
a swath of severe gusts (in addition to hail) will be possible
overnight, and downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed.

..Dean/Thompson.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Glc1fC7f0moX8cjeoK2htPQuH__QpQ_K_ujeTVwdeSeqbundX0UkaFsVoRoXTDMFUszBzQff= CrUthsHvBz6epndgVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40730440 40950188 40940173 40950051 40899968 40619917
40239894 39889906 39649957 39610062 39590137 39630273
39660344 39800410 40000435 40080495 40730440=20


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