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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1322

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 16:46:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 021646
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021645=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-021845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1322
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast PA into parts of southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 021645Z - 021845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase this afternoon,
    accompanied by a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated
    hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing from northeast PA
    into southern NY early this afternoon, with some weak midlevel
    rotation noted with a small cell near Binghamton. Buoyancy is
    currently modest across the region, but continued diurnal heating/destabilization will support MLCAPE of greater than 1000
    J/kg later this afternoon from northeast PA into parts of southern
    New England. Moderate westerly flow aloft will support effective
    shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for organized convection. As storm
    coverage increases with time this afternoon, a couple of organized
    clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with an attendant
    risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon once a
    greater coverage of organized storms appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pu_69ZuOOE4p5AcKF-Lo-dhfQaY3w3d0r-_EAV3gUhjzoaYgPvZ0U2D_jjZSoFvC9mjPUa9y= TwoPB8bFE_fQSGOw5k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42057573 42797350 42937239 42907190 42547184 41727256
    41247392 41167488 41197544 41317597 41467612 41767612
    42057573=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 28, 2023 23:33:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 282333
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282332=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-290100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1322
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern CO the western OK/TX
    Panhandles and southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282332Z - 290100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated high-based storms may produce occasional damaging
    gusts this evening. Storm coverage should remain relatively low, and
    a Watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
    high-based convection was beginning to intensify across portions of southeastern CO and far northeast NM. Weak buoyancy has developed
    within the hot and well-mixed air mass across the southern High
    Plains. On the fringes of 30 kt effective shear, storms will
    predominately be multicellular. LCL heights in excess of 2km along
    with very large DCAPE (> 1700 J/kg) will support the potential for
    strong downdrafts with the ongoing storms. Severe wind gusts are
    possible, especially if storms can grow upscale later tonight into a
    loose cluster as some hi-res guidance suggests. Given the relatively
    limited potential for storm organization, weak background forcing
    for ascent, and more isolated coverage, a weather watch appears
    unlikely this evening.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9InKEOqsr7dF2YOcyRwvzmmqy21EdJ879J1xqqCZpOSj0Oo6-JuszrFSY4u0lzeghx7pa-j7s= xkyae1uhm4CW0ttlsM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37380060 36690190 36450237 36440269 36520316 36740340
    36980343 37420330 37650309 37960274 38170250 38420212
    38710144 38670111 38510057 38240017 37830025 37380060=20


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