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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1316

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 01, 2022 20:06:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 012005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012005=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1316
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern WY...Northern NE Panhandle...Western
    SD...Far southeast MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012005Z - 012130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
    later this afternoon, with a risk of severe wind gusts and hail.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing this afternoon near
    the higher terrain of eastern WY and also along a weak surface
    boundary northwest of Rapid City, with somewhat more widespread
    convection noted across western WY. Continued
    heating/destabilization downstream of the developing convection will
    result in MLCAPE increasing into the 750-1500 J/kg from eastern WY
    into western SD, while veering wind profiles and modest westerly
    midlevel flow will support effective shear in excess of 35 kt into
    this evening. A supercell or two may evolve later this afternoon as
    storms begin to organize, with a tendency toward some upscale growth
    with time due to storm mergers and increasingly prominent convective outflow.=20

    Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible with any sustained
    supercell, with any clustering or upscale growth leading to a
    somewhat greater severe wind risk with time. Given the potential for
    some organized severe thunderstorm threat to develop with time,
    watch issuance is possible later this afternoon across some portion
    of the MCD area.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pk60mYBH-lQU_FdZ5RzeU2a-U3Qv27aldex30gbdIA3q-oc9HcbSQvNjs1DdwvwAyPEGt0Qo= wpjuPAPknAuDJbMlWU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43610654 44100617 45350549 45500399 44640226 43890148
    43060166 42420209 42190320 42050383 42010427 42070490
    42380720 43130679 43610654=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 28, 2023 02:39:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 280239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280238=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-280415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1316
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0938 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central SD and NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...406...

    Valid 280238Z - 280415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403, 406
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms near the NE/SD border will
    likely continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail for a bit
    longer this evening. Greater uncertainty exists with storms into
    central NE.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0235 UTC, a linear cluster of strong to severe
    storms near the NE/SD border remains fairly strong and well
    organized this evening. Recent observational and hi-res model trends
    suggest these storms will likely continue to pose a risk for
    damaging gusts and some hail for a couple more hours tonight. A
    local extension of some counties along the NE/SD border may be
    necessary as storms approach the edges of WW406 and 403.

    Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain intensity away
    from better forcing for ascent and cooler mid-level temperatures.
    While an isolated severe risk remains possible into central NE
    tonight, confidence in a sustained severe risk is low. As storms
    track farther east they will gradually encounter increasing
    inhibition and weaker buoyancy into the overnight hours. Weakening
    appears likely, though isolated damaging gusts may persist beyond
    the eastern edge of the watches tonight.

    ..Lyons.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jpmsPjQeVcWhxxCfMX56Oj-3ggnVGfDMacaPSKh5QPTUAxJJX5HlAiFtCrz3G7hrHpOdfX9S= DWT8rL9ukEnCNfcbFk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42820164 43270112 43820065 44320039 44580023 44690005
    44719964 44609912 44339906 44039895 43439889 43069907
    42879920 41749990 41260027 41200086 41390154 41900167
    42740161 42820164=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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