ACUS11 KWNS 302341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302341=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...

Valid 302341Z - 010145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 416. Large hail is the primary threat with the more intense
storms, but a couple damaging gusts or a tornado also cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Earlier storms moving onto the Upper MI Peninsula have
obtained supercell structures within the last hour or so, with
mainly small hail reported. KMQT and MRMS mosaic radar data show
these storms continuing to intensify, with severe MESH and
appreciable low- and mid-level rotation becoming more evident.
Modified RAP forecast soundings depict relatively moist low level
overspread by 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, contributing to
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. In addition to this moderate buoyancy,
strengthening and veering vertical wind profiles are resulting in
50-70 kts of effective bulk shear, favoring continued storm organization/strengthening. Large hail will remain a concern with
the stronger storms through the early evening hours. Downstream of
the storms, greater low-level shear is present, with RAP forecast
soundings and APX VWPs showing relatively large, curved 0-3 km
hodographs. 23Z mesoanalysis shows over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH
across central and eastern parts of the Upper MI Peninsula. As such,
a tornado cannot be ruled out with the more discrete, inflow
dominant supercells this evening.

..Squitieri.. 06/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Qxg8iz3e_8XaEqRwCkCRISsHSqXRAJStk7Aig-rlXC0p5fzc6GlFt_5RZJ4hVGDHnb2PiFKH= BjxoQ-k7_pcwOCrACc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON 46519047 47128785 47018723 46638572 46318542 46008548
45718599 45518642 45548710 45778822 46038919 46519047=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 280001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280000=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern OK into southern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 280000Z - 280130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) will become an
increasing concern as thunderstorms spread eastward this evening.
Downstream watch issuance will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Convection is strengthening early this evening across
the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle as it encounters
greater MLCAPE with eastward extent along/near a front, with
multiple reports of 4 inch hail with a supercell in Texas County OK.
This activity is already showing signs of upscale growth, and this
trend is expected to continue this evening as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens to around 30-40 kt. 40+ kt of deep-layer shear will
easily support continued convective organization of the developing
MCS.

There is some concern with the axis of greatest severe wind
potential this evening across southern KS and northern OK, as the
surface boundary/front has not advanced as far north as some
guidance suggested earlier. The greatest instability axis currently
extends from southwestern KS into northwestern and central OK. While
some northward advance of rich low-level moisture (70+ surface
dewpoints) appears possible with the low-level warm advection regime
tonight, the lack of a stronger surface mass response suggests that
the greatest instability will probably remain confined close to
where it is currently located. Adjustments to the higher severe wind probabilities (30/45% wind areas) will likely be needed with the
forthcoming 01Z Day 1 Convective Outlook across southern KS and northern/central OK to account for observational trends.

Even with these concerns, the potential for significant
severe/damaging winds (75+ mph) in a narrow corridor remains
apparent, as a very unstable airmass and strongly sheared
environment will likely support a small but intense bow moving east-southeastward this evening. Isolated large hail will remain
possible with any embedded supercell. A tornado may also occur for a
couple more hours in a narrow corridor across southwestern KS into
northwestern OK, where low-level shear will be maximized near the
surface boundary. Downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
be required to address the increasing severe threat.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_x0Nmae-D6PQiW54DlKd562C6xlGA9KsR80qygEdYtARCNP7jfkY69adH8R7gPAi7MxaOwOm-= Jh7NHcrC-hrEfHJ5p4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36049978 37739997 37869885 37719742 37359680 36839655
36229672 35969695 35829745 35839872 36049978=20


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