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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1308

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 30, 2022 04:11:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 300411
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300410=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-300545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1308
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1110 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

    Areas affected...western portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 300410Z - 300545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An instance of marginally severe hail may accompany the
    more dominant elevated storms this evening. A WW issuance is not
    expected given the expected brief/sparse nature of the severe
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...Strong 850-700 mb WAA is taking place across the Great
    Lakes region in advance of a subtle, embedded mid-level impulse
    cresting the large scale upper ridge across the northern Plains. The
    MPX 00Z observed sounding depicts 800-600 mb lapse rates around 8
    C/km, with southwesterly ambient winds encompassing this layer. The
    03Z mesoanalysis depicts this lapse rate plume advecting
    east-northeast towards the Upper Michigan Peninsula, supporting a
    wedge of 500 J/kg MUCAPE overspreading the western Great Lakes in
    tandem with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Storms embedded in this
    WAA regime have a history of producing large hail across northeast
    MN and it is possible that an instance or two of marginally severe
    hail may also accompany these storms as they traverse the Upper
    Michigan Peninsula. Given overall limited MUCAPE (constrained above
    600 mb in a tall-skinny profile per 02Z RAP forecast soundings), the
    large hail threat is expected to remain quite limited and a WW
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48_x6AamzOkcvhb5W74aohoV9SF6SiWbnokcMlVPgH4Psjy5Ks1ewKlMVp69pLqH8r21dhX6J= TXo2NpeELMs8sxMYNk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

    LAT...LON 46739019 47168940 47398876 47518794 47278782 46738763
    46318766 46088782 45978835 46088918 46369001 46739019=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 19:22:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 271922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271921=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1308
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...far southeast AR...northeast LA...central and
    southwest MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271921Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a localized severe risk.=20
    Damaging gusts are the primary hazard but severe hail is possible
    too.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
    field from southern AR southeastward into MS. A few thunderstorms
    have developed in the past hour across central and southwest MS
    within a weakly capped airmass. Very moist/warm conditions are
    indicated by surface observations early this afternoon with
    temperatures rising into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the
    mid-upper 70s. RAP forecast soundings show upwards of 4500 J/kg
    MLCAPE over central MS with weak west to northwesterly flow in the
    lowest 4 km beneath 50-kt west-northwesterly flow around 11 km (250
    mb). The buoyancy/kinematic combination will support some storm
    organization in the form of multicells. Localized 50-65 mph gusts
    and large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) are possible with the
    more intense storms. If a small cluster can develop, a perhaps more
    focused severe risk will be able to be discerned.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49zMWq6VrkNxgDciG2XLER2ZOFyMmvFqxP3bLo3BYowWC3fq8E3iL_01p0JHsNYe-BlzwKKTT= 7dFQuv5wiaM14Ihaqk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33299212 32889219 32559203 31139123 30999092 31069040
    31678932 31908919 32148915 33819023 33969065 33939116
    33299212=20


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