ACUS11 KWNS 290017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016=20
MTZ000-290215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Areas affected...Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 290016Z - 290215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain possible with convection across central/eastern MT this evening.

DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is flattening and shifting east across the
northern High Plain of MT this evening. Scattered convection
initiated over southwestern MT earlier this afternoon and this
activity has propagated downstream into an environment that is a bit
more moist with a decidedly easterly boundary-layer component. While
much of the convection has struggled to organize, a notable cluster
of storms has evolved near LWT and appears to have some
organizational character to it. Additionally, a narrow line of
convection is advancing off the Beartooth Mountains and this
activity may become more productive in generating wind as it
propagates across south-central MT. Gusty winds, some in excess of
50kt, have been noted with some of these storms and should continue
for the next several hours given the steep lapse rates and ample
shear for organized updrafts.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ZHFgSHpB2UX4g93N88yEgE1CMi7CF3d_seXTEHYBxUTmF018p_mLV97IoUret-2CQ5Ev6M9Y= F3SfU2CCJhilgi-838$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47941116 48790661 46190662 45351114 47941116=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 270816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270815=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-271015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Southwest SD...NE Panhandle...Central
NE...Northwest/Central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270815Z - 271015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail and damaging gusts will continue throughout the night.

DISCUSSION...A moderate low-level jet, characterized by 850-mb wind
speeds around 35 to 40 kt, extends from the TX Panhandle northward
into southwest SD. Moderate low-level moisture exists within this
corridor with surface dewpoints ranging from the low 60s across the
TX Panhandle to the mid 50s across the NE Panhandle and southwest
SD, and 850-mb dewpoints ranging from 18 deg C in the TX Panhandle
to 13 deg C in southwest SD. This moisture lies beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates, contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy.
The low-level jet is expected to persist throughout the night, with
some additional strengthening possible.=20

Warm-air advection associated with this low-level jet, coupled with
the favorable low-level moisture and moderate/strong buoyancy, is
forecast to promote thunderstorm development throughout the night.
Thunderstorm development will be favored along the outflow
boundaries of the ongoing storms in the northern NE Panhandle and
from southwest NE into central KS.=20

Southerly low-level flow veers to more westerly aloft, supporting
moderate to strong vertical shear across the entire region. Recent
mesoanalysis shows a large area of 50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear across
much of NE. Resulting combination of shear and buoyancy will support
strong to severe storms. Large hail will be the primary threat,
although some upscale growth is possible, and a few gusts could be
strong enough to penetrate the low-level stability. Even so, overall
severe coverage will be isolated and widely spaced, precluding the
need for watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7IZttHz3LZYbYUIuYslUveUc5mL2nGvUwPH6pO5LL6WDr3V3DI5xpDVQuFjNTqXdB9njq7Ykj= JA6WkVbCookSJNwfdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...CYS...

LAT...LON 41960272 43580400 43730228 42850046 40599835 38619775
38169803 38019909 38950032 40860186 41960272=20


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