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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1292

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 22:16:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 252216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252215=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1292
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western
    Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252215Z - 260015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few microbursts may accompany the stronger storms, with
    an isolated severe gust possible. A WW issuance is not expected
    given the very isolated extent of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...A hot and unstable airmass has developed near a
    stationary surface cold front, where storms have been gradually
    increasing in coverage and intensity over the past few hours. On
    both sides of the front, a deep, dry boundary layer extending up to
    700-500 mb has supported the development of 9+ C/km 0-3 km lapse
    rates. While tropospheric winds are weak, ample potential for
    evaporative cooling in the deep and dry boundary layer is fostering
    over 1500 J/kg DCAPE. As such, dry, high-based thunderstorms that
    can manage to develop heavier precipitation cores may support an
    isolated severe gust, and a 75+ mph gust cannot be completely ruled
    out should a more formidable microburst develop. Nonetheless, the
    severe threat is expected to remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not
    expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7eWIEmDvl92483erT5fTPxW5L-X2fSsPybb0q0kERCeBg7xckEBbormKYFUS2sJwsxfLeEptV= _tDGII1_nfgUWjVbfE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34590289 34880324 35090332 35240326 35410313 35490297
    35470213 35620118 35990009 36229900 36149816 35559861
    35079957 34710033 34470130 34430205 34590289=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 00:03:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 270003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270003=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-270130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1292
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Southern NY State...eastern PA...NJ...into
    VA...northern MD and DE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...392...

    Valid 270003Z - 270130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391, 392
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will persist for a few more hours
    with a risk for damaging winds and occasional hail. Convection
    should begin to slowly weaken towards sunset.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW391 and 392, several clusters of strong to
    severe storms were ongoing this evening. Storms have slowly matured
    over the last hour or two with reports of damaging gusts and
    occasional hail. The air mass across the region remains moderately
    unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is relatively
    modest suggesting storms will remain multicellular and somewhat
    limited in organization potential. Storms will likely remain capable
    of damaging gusts and occasional hail for a few more hours this
    evening.

    To the east of the ongoing storms, previous convection has resulted
    in some stabilization and much weaker buoyancy. Storms should begin
    to slowly downtrend later this evening as they encounter weaker
    buoyancy and increasing MLCIN from previous storms and nocturnal
    stabilization. Until then, the severe risk continues.

    ..Lyons.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-YPUHWHS5ZhQuDUwOr_Xu0WHzTaSRpI108mZYdbyyb9H6jm3HCpGw5DnjG1Qs-pSXoU7T6y7x= rsWw_X70y1O9rboT2c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40277439 39537469 39307529 39237532 38537608 38407644
    38327673 38337699 38487716 38707724 39807758 39847764
    40867760 42397689 43027670 43607617 43637555 42727520
    42067514 41597464 41017449 40377441 40277439=20


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