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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1289

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 06:57:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 250656
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250656=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1289
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

    Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250656Z - 250930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms remain possible from eastern Nebraska
    into Iowa, and isolated marginally severe hail or wind may occur.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to expand in coverage from
    northeast NE into northern IA over the next several hours, in a zone
    of positive theta-e advection at 850 mb. With time however, the
    low-level jet will veer and focus lift farther east where storms
    will be clearly elevated.

    00Z soundings show steep lapse rates aloft, which is maximizing
    instability with 70s F dewpoints. Drying from the southwest is
    forecast (negative theta-e advection at 850 mb) tonight, which may
    limit coverage and severity of any isolated cells over eastern NE a
    few hours from now.

    Given the expected rapid increase in warm advection storms, storm
    mode may be complex and only favor marginally severe hail as a
    result of moderate instability. Otherwise, a conglomeration of
    storms could produce locally strong to severe downdrafts as well.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-s7o_AH8YGlrhGZZltPb4qFi1mlYNitjSJh7sQnHHk-NoaR0R-qCohvcDPhNGd9rgcx_yjX2W= HRe6W4NqaIlYh8w5jE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 41089790 42149778 42599739 42949692 43299593 43369447
    43269352 42989284 42899263 42399245 42069264 41859306
    41939370 42039453 41959526 41549598 41259633 41009687
    40899738 40939768 41089790=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 22:26:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 262226
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262225=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-270030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1289
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262225Z - 270030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms are expected to develop over the Laramie
    Range and shift east-southeastward with time. Watch may need to be
    considered pending eventual storm coverage.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows multiple attempts
    at storm development over the Laramie Range, with indications that
    lightning may commence in the next half hour to hour. Just east of
    the terrain, daytime heating of the relatively moist boundary layer
    (generally upper 50s dewpoints) has resulted in development of 1000
    to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

    Several CAMs continue to indicate a couple of supercells evolving
    across southeastern Wyoming, and then shifting southeastward across
    the Nebraska Panhandle, and persisting into mid-evening before
    diminishing. With low-level southeasterly flow indicated via
    surface analysis, beneath an anticyclonic belt of mid-level flow
    around 40 kt, this supports the idea of a couple of supercell storms
    possibly moving off the higher terrain early this evening, with
    attendant risk for large hail and a damaging gust or two. While the
    isolated nature of convection currently anticipated may mitigate
    need for WW issuance, we will continue to monitor the area for signs
    of development that may prove sufficient for WW consideration.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uPJh-LP64uBPlNlGt91zF9DNoLALnhFoYRxRlpjZuMowHHvWvMGHBZVNe1vOdmWBkHyYRgFx= IaEOuCJqsLxV378DYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 42860609 43030460 42150231 41570148 41130141 40760218
    41010289 41220522 42860609=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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