ACUS11 KWNS 250350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250350=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern into central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409...

Valid 250350Z - 250545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe winds is expected to persist for the
next few hours across northern into central Minnesota in association
with a well-developed thunderstorm squall line. A 75+ mph gust
remains possible in the near term.

DISCUSSION...An organized bow-echo MCS has become established across
northwest MN with a history severe wind gusts, with 1-2 gusts near
or exceeding 75 mph. The MCS continues to progress east-southeast
amid a moderately unstable airmass, characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE. The onset of nocturnal cooling and increase in CINH should
contribute to a gradual weakening of the bow echo later tonight,
especially since deep-layer shear and lift remain modest. In the
meantime, at least isolated severe gusts should continue with the
bow echo over the next few hours and an additional 75+ mph wind gust
cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OBFWH7Ag9_rEMiX5CcNo2GBbaOP7jpZ9YEAleHETdezFgM2KilfHrubPYpT0pTk1msYQICd_= -PuqtIY-EsvrWBC0co$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 45529663 46009724 46439720 46859655 47239590 47939510
48149444 48309350 48359290 48219244 48059201 47479185
46489233 45909300 45619386 45499480 45529663=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 262031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262030=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central PA...MD...DC...the
eastern WV Panhandle...and VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...392...393...

Valid 262030Z - 262200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391, 392,
393 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move eastward this afternoon and
evening while posing a threat for severe hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...With around 25-35 kt of mid-level westerly flow
present, mainly cellular convection has developed this afternoon
over the higher terrain of south-central PA into MD/VA. Similar
values of effective bulk shear are aiding updraft organization, with
some supercells with hail cores noted. Severe hail may be the
primary severe threat for the next hour or two as this activity
develops eastward and off the higher terrain. It still seems
probable that convection will eventually grow upscale and pose more
of a damaging wind threat as it moves into northern/central VA, DC,
central MD, and south-central PA over the next couple of hours.
Continued steepening of low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support this increasing wind threat with
eastward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 391, 392, and
393.

..Gleason.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64BvflZF7S8ZynXlBqhTINFY8ACGa3TPi5hOicQlnKJRmUAEI7cyzpdBj4pPccQonYieQ_kQb= KSkkFmhbd507PwphZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37527948 38477907 39407889 40817813 40577660 38577692
37427788 37527948=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)